To the neutral, Tamworth vs Maidenhead may not seem the most appealing of games, but in the wider context of the National League relegation battle, it could have huge implications come the end of the season. The sides are separated by only goal difference, so we are in for an intriguing battle at the Lamb Ground.
While Scunthorpe were heavy favourites for last season's National League North title, nobody would have predicted that Southern League Central champions Tamworth would beat them to the title by eight points.
The Lambs were relentless, only conceding 29 goals and scoring 74, with Andy Peaks' side storming to the title on 96 points. Their home record was imperative to this promotion, gaining 52 points at home, scoring 43 and conceding just 12.
It will be their form at the Lamb Ground to thank if Tamworth do survive, with promoted teams often struggling on the road as they adapt to longer journeys.
This looks to be the case for Tamworth who have only picked up one point on their travels – a 1-1 draw at fellow promoted side Boston United. Tamworth’s other three away games have resulted in 2-0, 7-0 and 1-0 defeats to York City, Barnet and Eastleigh respectively.
At home, an opening day 1-1 draw with recently relegated Sutton commanded some respect, before a tight game against Hartlepool saw the Monkey Hangers emerge 1-0 victors. Their last game in front of their supporters was a 3-2 win over playoff-chasing Aldershot – a result that shows the Lamb’s credentials.
Maidenhead are another example of a smaller club struggling on the road, likewise only picking up one point from their five away games. Alan Devonshire’s side has lost 2-1 to Solihull Moors, 4-3 to Aldershot and 3-1 to Rochdale, as well as a 0-0 draw at relegation-threatened AFC Fylde.
The Magpies have developed a reputation for being a bogey side at home, already defeating title favourites Barnet 3-1 and claiming several big scalps last year, most notably home wins over Gateshead and Hartlepool at the end of the season – two results that ultimately kept them up.
Since their promotion to the National League in 2017, Maidenhead have managed to survive every season, but are yet to finish above 12th. Still, for a club of their size and status to constantly be punching above their weight, Alan Devonshire deserves tremendous credit and he is sure to go down in Maidenhead folklore.
As mentioned, teams battling relegation rely massively on their home form, so Tamworth will see this as a must-win. Teams of The Lambs and Magpies ilk will see any away game as a ‘free hit’, where any point gained will be seen as a bonus.
Maidenhead only picked up 23 points on their travels last season as they struggled massively. Tamworth will be seeing this match as an ideal opportunity for a much-needed three points to give them some breathing room over the bottom four.
It will be a cagey, low-scoring game. Tamworth pride themselves on defensive resilience and both teams will make a clean sheet their priority. Five of Tamworth’s seven games have seen under 2.5 goals, with the expectations against Barnet and Aldershot – the two teams with the highest % for over 2.5 goals.
Maidenhead have seen under 2.5 goals in only half of the games, but the only fellow relegation candidate they have played is AFC Fylde – a game that ended 0-0.
Best Bet: Tamworth draw no bet @1.80 & Under 2.5 goals @2.00 - bet365
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