Over Under Betting Strategy 2020
Betting System Explained
Over under betting explained simply, is deciding on whether a set total of points, goals or things such as frames in a snooker match, will be reached or not. It serves as a popular alternative to betting staples like match outrights and handicaps.
In our over under betting explained article, we break down the key components of over under betting and take a look at some strategies on how to approach the bet type.
- Over under markets are available on a range of sports
- Use of statistics is highly advised
- Add conditional value to sports bets
- Determine your own system
The thorough Betting.co.uk guide to over under betting
Use of over under betting explained in football
In the example of a football match, one of the most popular over under markets is for the tally of goals. Other examples of over under markets that appear in football commonly are the number of cards shown and the number of corners.
Although alternative lines can be found, in regular over under markets there is always a half number in play. The common example is the over under 2.5 goals line on a football match.
What does the half goal do in over under betting? It is there to eliminate the possibility of a bet ending in a draw (or a push as it’s commonly known). There is no way a half of a goal can be scored in a match, so for an Over/Under 2.5 goals selection, there will either be a win or lose situation.
Even though this is a 50/50 chance market, the odds are not going to represent a perfect 50/50 chance. If that were the case then both an Under and Over pick on the same line would be at even money. But the bookmaker has to make their cut so you’ll never get that true value.
So that is why extending the line beyond the common (for example the 2.5 goals line in a football match), is where the better value is at.
The key role of statistics in over under betting
One of the most appealing things about over under betting is that it is relatively easy to approach through statistics. That, of course, makes planning an over under betting strategy a lot easier.
In the example of a football match, there are simple approaches that can be taken to weigh up the value in the market. A simple example in creating an over under betting system, would be to find a team which consistently has home games which end under 2.5 goals. Backing that outcome then could form the basis of a simple over under strategy.
Another straightforward statistical input is taking the average goals per game the home team has scored and how many goals per game they are conceding. Then it’s a simple look at the away team’s figures and piecing it all together to determine the most likely goal line option.
Attaching over under betting options to outcomes.
Effective use of over under bets in football
Over under bets do not necessarily have to be stand-alone options. They can add value to bets where the match outright may be lacking. An example of this would be backing Manchester City at home to beat Everton in a Premier League match. Manchester City may be at an odds-on price and not extremely appealing to back in the match outright.
However, if the statistical feedback is reporting that each of their last six home fixtures has ended over 2.5 goals for example, then you can piece things together to make a Man City To Win & Over 2.5 goals bet. The initial same outcome of Manchester City claiming the victory is in place in the wager, there is just a conditional factor added on.
That option could then be hedged if the conditions are right, with a straight under 2.5 goals stake. These are options that could be put together as part of an over under betting system.
The importance of statistics can not be stressed enough when it comes to over under betting strategy. It helps determine the goal line (or total corners or whatever the market is) that can be targeted.
Some over under betting strategy advice to consider
Another interesting area of over under betting is how it can be used in areas like a live tennis in-play strategy. With markets shifting around once a sporting event has gotten underway, then it can create circumstances when playing a waiting game can help.
A tennis betting strategy could be waiting to see how many games crop up in the first set before making an in-play option on the Games Total market.
In a football match, for example, if a game is only 0-0 or 1-0 at half time, then going Over 2.5 goals in live betting is likely going to offer a much better price than the market offered pre-match.
There is a lot of flexibility when it comes to over/under markets. That flexibility comes from being able to move the over under line to personal preferences based on judgement.
Being able to determine when the right time is to shift that line in your favour, is where the real skill is. Such as being able to make an Under 2.5 goal call on a game that looks as if it could be high-scoring.
What other betting/casino guides & strategies are available?
An over under betting system can range from the simple to the complicated. For beginners it’s worth taking a look at our 1.01 betting strategy guide to get a good grounding in sports betting.
This over under betting explained article can also be used as a platform for more in-depth analysis of different areas of betting, such as a matched betting strategy, or even overviews of specific sports events, such as our greyhound racing betting strategy guide.
The Over/Under markets can bring some conditional value to sports betting. They can be useful additions on outright markets which don’t offer the required value from the risk and reward on an outcome.
Examining statistics to try and beat the bookie will help to plan any over under betting strategy. That’s important because over/under markets are generally ones that bookmakers run high edges on, particularly on the most common line of a given market.
So being able to shift to creative options beyond the common line (e.g. Over/Under 2.5 goals in a football match) is where the real value of this bet type will start creeping in.