Tip:
Merino under 2.5 shots, Brentford +3 handicap
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Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Real Madrid on Tuesday was perhaps the greatest Champions League night the Emirates Stadium has ever seen. Looking to capitalise on any potential lack of focus are Brentford, who have held their own in a tough run of fixtures.
Dazzling Declan
The Premier League title may have slipped away from the Gunners, but their European hopes are very alive after they put one foot in the Champions League semi-finals in midweek.
It will be interesting to see how Mikel Arteta navigates Saturday’s match with Brentford. Will he go all out and try to keep the pressure on Liverpool, or will he approach it with half an eye on the second leg in Madrid, accepting that 11 points is too big a gap?
Tuesday’s hero, Declan Rice, limped off in the 80th minute, while Bukayo Saka was also withdrawn, and the pair are unlikely to start.
Bees Showing They Belong
Brentford’s last four matches have all been against sides chasing European positions, and they have all been close affairs that were either drawn or decided by a one-goal margin.
While they gave a good account of themselves across that stretch, the eight dropped points in March probably spelled the end for their hopes of snatching a place in next season’s Conference League.
Still, after finishing 16th last term, the Bees have taken huge strides forward, which is impressive in the post-Ivan Toney era.
A top-half berth is still within reach for Thomas Frank’s team, with the schedule set to become easier after the next three games.
Gunners Settled the Score
Brentford beat Arsenal 2-0 in their first-ever Premier League fixture in 2021, but since then, it has been one-way traffic in the head-to-head rivalry.
The Gunners have won six and drawn one of the last seven encounters. The one game they failed to win was a costly one, as it saw them lose ground in the 2022-23 title race.
Arsenal have been more convincing at the Gtech Community Stadium since 2022 than in home games against Brentford. Their scorelines at home to the Bees in the last three seasons have been 2-1, 1-1, and 2-1.
Kai Havertz scored an 86th-minute winner when the sides met at the Emirates last Match.
Tip:
Merino under 2.5 shots, Brentford +3 handicap
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Victories are hard to come by for Brentford at Arsenal, but they are usually competitive at the Emirates.
A triumph on Saturday would end an 87-year wait for a Bees away success.
Arsenal vs. Brentford
1
Both teams have scored in each of Arsenal’s last five home matches with Brentford.
2
The Bees have only won once away at Arsenal, in 1938.
3
Arteta’s side have won 12 of their last 15 London derbies.
Our Betting Tip for Today
The best bet for this fixture is for Mikel Merino to have under 2.5 shots, and Brentford to cover the +3 handicap.
Merino’s run of games up front, born out of necessity, has actually worked out pretty well. The Spaniard has scored six goals since the switch, but has only registered three or more shots on one occasion in his last 10 starts.
Even if he plays up front, the under 2.5 shots line looks an attractive proposition. However, I suspect he may have to fill in for the likely absent Rice in midfield, which makes this an even more promising bet.
There is also the possibility that Merino is taken off in the second half to save his legs for Wednesday.
This prop has lots going for it, but at a smidge under 4/5 I’d like to pair it with something to get to Evens.
Brentford +3 works just fine in that regard. This is one of only two games they have left against the league’s top seven, and the Bees are yet to suffer a defeat by more than two goals. Arsenal will be more than happy seeing it out in second gear if they are ahead late on.
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