Arsenal – Newcastle United
Tip:
Jacob Murphy to commit a foul
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It’s second versus third on Sunday afternoon as Newcastle look to strengthen their position in pursuit of a top-five finish. Victory would see them leapfrog the Gunners and move into the runner-up spot.
Gunners Show Heart at Anfield
It looked as though Liverpool were set to rub salt in Arsenal’s wounds last weekend, as the Premier League champions burst into a 2-0 lead four days after the Gunners had been eliminated from the Champions League.
However, second-half efforts from Gabriel Martinelli and Mikel Merino earned an important draw for Arsenal. The second half display will have pleased Mikel Arteta, not only because it kept their points tally ticking over, but also for the mental strength they showed to recover from a poor opening 45 minutes.
A point at home on Sunday would be enough to box off a place in next season’s premier European competition.
Newcastle Nearly There
Victory over Chelsea last time out has put the Magpies on the brink of Champions League qualification. Their three-point lead over sixth-placed Aston Villa is strengthened by a significant goal difference advantage, which is essentially worth an extra point at this stage.
Of course, they would love to continue their excellent form with a triumph at the Emirates, but even if they leave North London empty-handed, they have a home game against Everton on the final day, where three points would surely finish the job.
Kieran Trippier, Joe Willock, Joelinton, Matt Targett, and Lewis Hall will all be absent at Arsenal due to injury.
Magpies Eyeing Fab Four
Newcastle have beaten Arsenal three times this season without conceding a goal. The first of those successes came in the league, as they made it back-to-back 1-0 triumphs at home to the Gunners in the Premier League.
The sides were drawn together in the Carabao Cup semi-finals, and Eddie Howe’s side won both legs 2-0. Anthony Gordon, who netted the winner when the teams met in November 2023, scored in both of those cup matches.
Arsenal did, however, manage a heavy victory over the Magpies last season at the Emirates. Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka, and Jakub Kiwior were on the scoresheet in a 4-1 win.
Tip:
Jacob Murphy to commit a foul
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Arsenal and Newcastle have kept their fair share of clean sheets in recent meetings.
The Gunners could do with reversing their recent slump at the Emirates.
Arsenal vs. Newcastle United
1
Both teams to score has only landed once in the last 15 H2Hs.
2
Newcastle’s last league success at Arsenal occurred in 2010, when Andy Carroll scored the winner.
3
Arsenal are winless in their last four home matches in all competitions.
Our Betting Tip for Today
The best bet for Arsenal v Newcastle is Jacob Murphy to commit a foul, priced at 5/4 with bet365.
Make it Murphy
Myles Lewis-Skelly has become a foul magnet, so even though Murphy’s fouls committed data isn’t great, I’m happy to back him to make one offence at odds-against.
The Arsenal left-back has been fouled at least once in each of his last 12 starts, with a total of 36 fouls made against him during that run.
He even drew three fouls from Mohamed Salah on Sunday - a man who hasn’t been penalised three times since the opening day of the campaign.
Murphy was deployed at wing-back against Chelsea last week as Howe tweaked his formation. Even if he plays there again, there’s still a good chance he finds himself up against Lewis-Skelly at times.
Martinelli could also help us out. The Brazilian wasn’t fouled at Anfield, but he had been brought down in eight consecutive games before that.
Murphy averages 0.44 fouls per game, which explains the price, but considering the opposing players, I still make this a value proposition.
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