Tip:
Rogers & Tielemans fouled, Jimenez 2 shots
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Aston Villa suffered a crushing loss in last week’s FA Cup semi-final against Crystal Palace, but can still salvage their season by qualifying for next season’s Champions League. Fulham, though, will still feel they can hunt Villa down in 7th.
Villa Must Get Back on Track
The manner of Villa’s defeat by Palace on Saturday was concerning, as they failed to create any big chances while they conceded plenty.
That came four days after another damaging result. Manchester City’s 94th-minute winner last Tuesday created a four-point gap between themselves and Villa, who were minutes away from keeping that deficit at a manageable one point with four games remaining.
Marcus Rashford’s season-ending injury adds to Unai Emery’s problems, though he has an otherwise clean bill of health.
Their home form should provide some comfort. Nobody has overturned the hosts at Villa Park since the opening day of the season.
Cottagers Crave Continental Competition
Fulham’s push for European football had stuttered throughout April until a stoppage-time effort from Ryan Sessegnon earned them a crucial three points at Southampton.
The Cottagers have got their noses in front of Brighton and Bournemouth, but will want to climb another position in the table to guarantee a place in Europe.
They are six points behind Villa, and a win on Saturday would not only reduce the arrears to three but it would also give them a better goal difference.
Marco Silva’s side have picked up victories away at Newcastle, Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest this season, so they will believe they can come away with something.
H2H Heaven for Villa
Meetings with Fulham have been fruitful for Villa in recent years. The last four clashes have all gone the way of the West Midlands side, with Ollie Watkins netting four times in those matches.
The most significant head-to-head over the last decade was the Championship play-off final at Wembley in 2018. Fulham won 1-0 through Tom Cairney’s first-half strike.
That play-off final came during a run in which the Cottagers beat Villa seven times in 10 attempts, though only one of those successes occurred at Villa Park. Hugo Rodallega scored the winner that day in 2014 - the last time Fulham won away at Villa.
Tip:
Rogers & Tielemans fouled, Jimenez 2 shots
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Recent H2Hs and Villa’s home record make Saturday a tough ask for Fulham.
There are usually goals when these sides meet. Neutrals will hope for more of the same.
Aston Villa vs. Fulham
1
Aston Villa have won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings.
2
There have been three or more goals in seven of the last eight matches between the clubs.
3
Villa have gone 16 league outings without defeat at home.
Our Betting Tip for Today
The best bet for this fixture is a bet builder featuring two Raul Jimenez shots, and both Youri Tielemans and Morgan Rogers to be fouled.
Fouls matchups offer a nice way in to the Saturday lunchtime kickoff, with Tielemans and Rogers both appealing as selections in a bet builder.
Tielemans has been fouled in each of Villa’s home league games this term, with an average of 1.93 fouls drawn per 90 at Villa Park (1.63 per 90 overall).
Sasa Lukic (2.50 fouls per 90) dropped to the bench for Fulham’s trip to Southampton, but if he is restored to the XI, then that helps our chances with Tielemans and perhaps even Rogers, depending on where the attacking midfielder plays.
The 22-year-old has been deployed on the right-hand side more often than not. That would pit him against Antonee Robinson, who has 15 offences in his last 13 appearances, or more likely the in-form Ryan Sessegnon, who averages 3.04 fouls per 90.
Jimenez has taken two shots in every away game this season, bar the trip to Anfield. Adding that into the bet gets us up to a palatable price.
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