Brentford – Crystal Palace
Tip:
Palace over 12.5 shots
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The first London derby of the 2024-25 Premier League brings together two teams that have experienced sharply contrasting fortunes over the past year. Home advantage makes Brentford slight favourites, but Crystal Palace are tipped for greater success across the next nine months.
Toney Future in the Balance
Brentford are coming off their worst league campaign since gaining promotion to the top flight, and much of the pre-season noise surrounding the club has been centred around Ivan Toney.
The England striker is entering the final year of his contract. Igor Thiago - signed for £30m as a replacement - suffered a meniscus injury last month, leaving the Bees in a difficult position.
Fabio Carvalho’s arrival from Liverpool will add some attacking flair, but there is a sense that there is still a lot for Brentford to sort out before they can be ruled out of a relegation battle.
Feel Good Factor at Palace
Crystal Palace were the second-best team in England over the last seven games of 2023-24 as they took 19 points from a possible 21. That run included a 1-0 victory at Anfield and a 4-0 thrashing of Manchester United at Selhurst Park.
Michael Olise has left for Bayern Munich but that is the only major departure for now. Eagles fans face an anxious wait to see if they can keep hold of at least one of Marc Guehi and Eberechi Eze, both of whom should feature on Sunday.
Even if one or both of Guehi and Eze leave, there is still reason for optimism that Oliver Glasner can continue his Palace revolution. Adam Wharton looks set to stay and could form a formidable midfield partnership with Cheick Doucouré, while Jean-Philippe Mateta - who proved at the Olympics that his end-of-season form was no fluke - will provide the chief goal threat this term.
Honours Even
Brentford’s first-ever Premier League away game was against Crystal Palace three years ago, and the point they earned courtesy of the 0-0 draw was a sign of things to come for this match-up.
The next four meetings between the two sides finished all square before the Eagles ended that streak with a 3-1 triumph last December thanks to an Olise double and an Eze strike.
Before their encounter in 2021, Brentford and Palace had not occupied the same division since 1964. Three tiers have separated them multiple times since.
Tip:
Palace over 12.5 shots
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Recent history does not favour Brentford in this fixture and their home record for the previous season does not inspire confidence.
Palace away games tend not to be goal-heavy, and it will be interesting to see how they look to break the Bees down without Olise and potentially Mateta, who only returned to training on Wednesday.
Brentford vs. Crystal Palace
1
Brentford are winless in six Premier League matches against Crystal Palace (D5, L1).
2
The Bees won just five home league games in 2023-24, with three of those victories coming against the relegated sides.
3
Only Everton and Sheffield United managed fewer goals on the road than Palace (20) in the top flight last term.
Our Betting Tip for Today
Brentford gave up an average of 14.1 shots in home games last season, allowing 13 or more in all but six of those matches. Palace became more adventurous towards the end of the campaign, averaging 16.33 shots per game over their final six outings. The best bet for this match-up is for the Eagles to register over 12.5 shots.
Palace to Pepper the Bees Goal
Crystal Palace mustered 15 shots at the Gtech 12 months ago before having 13 efforts at goal in the return fixture in December. Olise was missing for the away game and Mateta only played 20 minutes, so I’m not concerned about the Eagles’ ability to pose a threat without them.
Odsonne Edouard, who could get the nod ahead of Mateta, registered 2.95 shots per 90 minutes in 2023-24 compared to the Frenchman’s 1.73.
Daichi Kamada - the new arrival from Lazio who played under Glasner at Eintracht Frankfurt - scored twice in pre-season for his new club and can contribute in the final third alongside Eze.
Palace have proven that they can be the aggressors rather than sitting back and absorbing pressure. They were good value for their first-half lead at Anfield in April after a blistering start, and they took the game to Fulham in their next away fixture before dominating Wolves at Molineux by racking up nine shots, two goals and an xG of 1.61 in the first half alone.
An odd-against price for them to make it seven league games on the bounce with over 12.5 shots looks very generous.
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