Brighton & Hove Albion – Arsenal
Tip:
Both Teams To Score - NO
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Saturday evening's live Premier League clash comes from the AMEX as European-Chasing Brighton hosts title-chasing Arsenal. If recent meetings are anything to go by, we should be in for a corker. However, I for one, am not optimistic about this.
European Ambition Still For Albion
Brighton far exceeded expectations in a historic 2022/2023 season by finishing 6th in the Premier League- thus securing European football for the first time.
The Seagulls topped a group of death featuring Marseille, AEK Athens and Ajax, but eventually succumbed to Italian powerhouses Rome.
It would be unrealistic to expect Brighton to repeat these European heroics, especially given a mounting injury crisis and the financial muscle of those above them. However, once again, Roberto De Zerbi has his side punching well above their weight and Albion are in the mix again.
Brighton have only lost one Premier League game at home this season - a 3-1 defeat to West Ham that saw a culmination of errors hand a ruthless Hammers the victory. I'm sure many on the South Coast would snap your hand off to keep this home unbeaten run going.
Gunners Aiming For Glory
Last season, Arsenal looked good value to win their first title since 2004. However, with juggernauts Manchester City breathing heavily down their necks, the Gunners ultimately imploded and the Citizens swooped in to win their third consecutive Premier League title.
This year, there is a steely resilience about Mikel Arteta's side, evident in their 0-0 draw at the Etihad.
Arsenal currently sit second in the league, one point clear of Manchester City and two off current leaders Liverpool in a title race for the ages. While it'll be easy to be distracted by the glitz and the glam of a Champions League semi-final against Bayern Munich on Tuesday, Arsenal have a job to do on Saturday against a tough Brighton side.
Head to Head
This fixture has not treated Arsenal well in recent years. Arsenal won the reverse fixture in December, as well as an enthralling New Year's Eve at the Amex last season, but it is Brighton who have claimed some big scalps over the Gunners in recent years. The most noticeable of these, of course, was the 0-3 victory for Brighton at the Emirates last year - a defeat that de-railed Arsenal's title aspirations.
Due to Arsenal's significant standing in the English game, they have the superior Head-To-Head record, but Brighton have done work to claw back some wins in recent years. The Gunners have won 16 of the 29 meetings, with Brighton winning eight.
Tip:
Both Teams To Score - NO
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Brighton vs. Arsenal
Game In The Balance
Brighton have won 3 of the last 5 meetings- Arsenal have won two
Resilient Gunners
Arsenal have conceded the fewest Premier League goals (24)
Fortress AMEX
Brighton have lost just two games in all competitons at home this season
While Brighton have seen 'Both Teams To Score' land in 12/14 home games this season, Arsenal have seen it in a league-low 5/15. Arteta's side are resilient and hard to beat, with Gabriel and William Saliba providing a solid base to defend from.
While Brighton have become renowned for their entertaining and high-octane style of play, injuries to Joao Pedro, Julio Enciso, Kauro Mitoma, Solly March and Evan Ferguson has seen Brighton lose their potency in attack. Of their last nine games in all competitions, only two have seen Both teams score.
Before their drab 0-0 draw at West Ham, Brighton had yet to keep a league clean sheet. Since then, Brighton have shut out Wolves, Nottingham Forest and Rome at home, as well as keeping clean sheets at Sheffield United and Brentford.
Albion's injury crisis in attack has forced De Zerbis's hand defensively. The introduction of Carlos Baleba due to Billy Gilmour's suspension and injury has beefed up the midfield, while pragmatic full-backs Joel Veltman and Igor Julio have been preferred to make Brighton less prone to conceding in transition. On top of this, De Zerbi has seemed to stop his goalkeeper rotation, with the statistically superior Bart Verbruggen set to start his fifth consecutive game.
Like Brighton, 'Both Teams To Score' has landed in just two of Arsenal's last nine games. The Gunners have flexed their defensive muscle in recent weeks, conceding just three goals in this period. With the rock-solid partnership of Gabriel and William Saliba, coupled with the powerful Declan Rice protecting them and the aerially dominant David Raya in goal, Arsenal look the most formidable team defensively in the Premier League.
While previous games have seen plenty of goals and entertainment, a more pragmatic, tactical game is expected on Saturday.
Arsenal to Edge Low-Scoring Affair
As mentioned, a low-scoring game is expected. Brighton lacks attacking potency due to the change in style and the injuries and key personnel. Mikel Artetas favours a slower-tempo game, priding himself on defensive stability. It is a game both managers will be afraid to lose, with Arsenal's ruthlessness and Brighton's tendency to gift sloppy goals likely to be the difference.
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