Tip:
BTTS, Caicedo foul + 2 tackles
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Five places separate Chelsea and Aston Villa in the Premier League table but a victory for the visitors on Sunday would see them go level on points with their top-four rivals.
Blues in Good Shape
Chelsea’s 2-0 win at Heidenheim on Thursday evening kept up their perfect record in the Europa Conference League, and the Blues are going well domestically too as they sit in third place.
Enzo Maresca’s side are unbeaten in the top flight since their narrow defeat at Anfield in October, and they are now odds-on to secure a place in next season’s Champions League.
A triumph over Villa, who are in Europe’s elite competition this term, would go a long way towards helping Chelsea achieve that. They have won just two of their six home encounters in the Premier League thus far, although they were both against teams in the top half.
Frustrating Times for Villa
Aston Villa are winless since October 22nd - a run that has seen them exit the Carabao Cup, move out of the automatic qualification positions in the Champions League, and slip down to eighth in the Premier League.
Morgan Rogers thought he had put an end to the painful spell as he struck late against Juventus on Wednesday, but his effort was disallowed for what Unai Emery described as a ‘strange’ foul decision.
Ezri Konsa was an unused substitute for the 0-0 draw with the Serie A side and is expected to return to the lineup at Stamford Bridge after missing the Crystal Palace fixture with a hip problem.
Happy Hunting Ground
Aston Villa’s results at Stamford Bridge had been atrocious for a decade before Emery arrived, with Chelsea winning seven and drawing one of their eight home matches against the West Midlands side from 2012 to 2021.
Emery’s first trip to SW6 as Villa boss resulted in the first success for the club at Chelsea since New Year’s Eve 2011.
Ollie Watkins was on the scoresheet that day and netted again last season as Villa made it back-to-back victories in West London.
Under Emery, Villa have never conceded at the Bridge in three visits in all competitions. They played out a goalless draw in the FA Cup in January before Chelsea won the replay.
Tip:
BTTS, Caicedo foul + 2 tackles
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Villa have enjoyed their last couple of league outings at Stamford Bridge, but the overall head-to-head record since the turn of the 2010s has been far from satisfactory for them.
Chelsea won 8-0 in December 2012, but goals haven’t been in abundance in subsequent match-ups.
Chelsea vs. Aston Villa
1
The last Chelsea player to score at home to Aston Villa was Timo Werner in a League Cup tie in 2021.
2
Chelsea have won 15 of the last 22 H2Hs in all competitions.
3
None of the last 20 meetings between the sides have seen more than four goals.
Our Betting Tip for Today
Both teams to score forms the basis of the best bet for Chelsea v Aston Villa, and we will add Moises Caicedo to make two tackles and a foul, thus creating an odds-against bet builder.
Caicedo to Get Stuck In
Caicedo has completed 41 tackles in 12 Premier League games this season and has committed 23 fouls across those matches.
He has made at least three tackles in nine of his last 10 starts, but I’m happy to play it safe and opt for two or more. The Ecuador international has been penalised in all but one of his league appearances, so both props have an almost perfect hit rate.
Chelsea are yet to keep a home clean sheet in the top flight in 2024-25. The only time both teams to score didn’t land was when they were shut out by Manchester City on the opening day.
Villa’s away form also points to BTTS. They failed to find the net at Anfield, but every other road trip saw both sides oblige.
Emery’s side have conceded more away goals than anyone else in the top 12, but they possess enough firepower to breach Chelsea’s backline.
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