Tip:
Calhanoglu over 66.5 passes
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The conclusion of Group F on Wednesday night promises to be an intriguing one, with three sides battling it out to qualify for the last 16 along with Portugal.
Czechs unable to cash in
For all of the Czech Republic’s dominance against Georgia on matchday two, they could only muster a draw against the 74th-ranked team in the world. The underdogs came closest to snatching all three points with the last kick of the game as Saba Lobjanidze blazed over when one-on-one with goalkeeper Jindrich Stanek.
The Czechs registered 26 shots with 11 on target, creating 3.09 xG. Ivan Hašek’s side also had a goal disallowed and the boss would not be blamed for cursing his luck, especially with the stoppage-time defeat by Portugal on matchday one factored in.
Star striker Patrick Schick came off with a muscle strain on Saturday. Hašek will be desperate for the Bayern Leverkusen player to be passed fit here.
Turks brought down to earth
Turkey set the continent alight with stunning goals and exciting attacking football in their opening match. However, they were outclassed by Portugal in their second outing and need a point versus the Czechs.
Many were surprised and perhaps disappointed to see teenage pair Kenan Yildiz and Arda Guler benched after their dazzling showings that helped the Turks down Georgia. Manager Vincenzo Montella insisted that Guler, who came on with 20 minutes left, ‘wasn’t fit to play’.
Supporters of Turkey will hope that both Yildiz and Guler are recalled to the starting XI and that their approach is more akin to their Dortmund display.
History points to goals
There is nothing to separate the two teams in the head-to-head record. Each have recorded five victories, and they have played out one draw.
One common theme when these sides lock horns is goals. There have been at least two in all 11 encounters, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.
The most famous meeting between the nations came at Euro 2008 in very similar circumstances to the upcoming fixture. In a straight shootout to advance from the group stage, Turkey recovered from 2-0 down with 15 minutes to play to win 3-2 and progress to the last 16.
Nihat Kahveci’s 89th-minute strike was the second last-gasp winner that the Crescent-Stars had found in as many games. They would get a taste of their own medicine in the semi-finals, though, when Philipp Lahm broke Turkish hearts in the dying seconds of normal time.
Tip:
Calhanoglu over 66.5 passes
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The Czechs need to keep it tight at the back on Wednesday evening but they have struggled to keep teams out in 2024.
A point will do for Turkey, who can only finish as high as second place even with a win.
Czech Republic vs. Turkey
1
Turkey’s 3-1 success over Georgia was the only time they have scored more than one goal in their last seven games.
2
Both teams to score has landed in each of the Czech Republic’s last six matches.
3
The Turks have won the last three meetings between the sides, with Hakan Calhanoglu scoring in two of those triumphs.
Our Betting Tip for Today
A controlled performance is required from Turkey to see themselves through. In Hakan Calhanoglu, they have a deep-lying midfielder who can manage and dictate the game. The best bet is for the Inter Milan playmaker to attempt over 66.5 passes.
Calhanoglu’s class to show
The young talent in the Turkey squad is rightfully garnering attention but Calhanoglu - the heartbeat of the team - remains their most important player.
Of all the midfielders in the tournament, only Toni Kroos, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, and Rodri have completed more passes per game than the Crescent-Stars’ skipper.
Operating from deep, Calhanoglu attempted 99 passes against Georgia and completed 89. He followed that up with 69 attempts in the Portgual loss, succeeding with 61.
Bet365’s passing props are settled on attempts rather than completions so I was surprised to see the 30-year-old’s line set at 66.5. If he simply matches his output versus Portugal against the Czechs - a fixture in which Turkey should see more of the ball - then we’re in business.
The risk with backing overs in these markets is the threat of substitutions, but Calhanoglu is rarely withdrawn early in competitive international action.
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