Tip:
Salah goal or assist, Liverpool win
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Liverpool failed to win for only the third time this season as they drew at Newcastle United on Wednesday. The result of the Merseyside derby will determine whether that point will be viewed as one gained or two dropped.
Breathing Space for the Toffees
Everton had been dragged back into the relegation picture but their 4-0 triumph over Wolverhampton Wanderers in midweek has eased any immediate concerns.
The Blues are now five unbeaten at home, and they would love to keep that run going against Liverpool, although they hardly need any further motivation to dent their title hopes in the final Goodison Park derby.
Sean Dyche’s side have only conceded once in their last four home outings. Until the win against Wolves, the struggles at the other end of the pitch were problematic. The Toffees blanked in four consecutive games throughout November and into December.
Rare Kelleher Error Proves Costly
Liverpool were far from their best against Newcastle. Still, after Mohamed Salah gave them the lead with seven minutes remaining, they would have expected to see out the victory and maintain their nine-point cushion at the top.
Caoimhin Kelleher, who has been a superb deputy to the injured Alisson Becker, misjudged a last-minute cross which allowed Fabian Schar to turn in the leveller.
Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City winning on the same night made it all the more painful for the Reds. Arne Slot has a perfect record in Saturday lunchtime Premier League matches thus far and if that continues, their lead will be double figures before the chasing pack can respond.
Draw Specialists
Nine of the last 12 meetings between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison Park have ended all square. The hosts had been winless during that run until April this year when the Toffees won 2-0 to heap more pain on a Reds side who had faded away at the end of the campaign.
Failure to win this fixture has proved costly for Liverpool in their pursuit of Premier League titles over the past dozen seasons. They gave up a 2-1 lead in 2013-14 as the match ended 3-3, and they couldn’t break their rivals down in a goalless draw in 2018-19 when their 97-point haul was one short of Manchester City.
Only a victory will do for them on Saturday. The last time they achieved that at Goodison was in 2021 - a game in which Salah netted twice.
Tip:
Salah goal or assist, Liverpool win
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Goals have often been at a premium in this fixture, but Liverpool's recent defensive frailties on the road suggest this might not be as tight as some previous encounters.
Slot won his first clash against Manchester United, but Reds managers rarely win their maiden Merseyside derby at Goodison.
Everton vs. Liverpool
1
Four of the last seven Goodison derbies have finished 0-0.
2
Liverpool have conceded nine goals in their last four away fixtures in all competitions.
3
Slot is aiming to become the first Reds boss since Kenny Dalglish in 1985 to win his first Merseyside derby when it has been played away from home.
Our Betting Tip for Today
Salah continues to post outrageous numbers as he looks to fire Liverpool to the title. The Egyptian forms the basis of our best bet, which is for him to score or assist, and the Reds to win.
Stick With Salah
Betfair have invariably offered the best price on Salah to score or assist over the past few weeks, and that remains the case for Saturday’s derby.
The odds are not as big as they were when Liverpool played Manchester City or Newcastle, but that is understandable given the weaker opposition. By pairing the Salah prop up with the visitors to take all three points, we get a very backable price.
He has now scored or assisted in 17 of his 21 Liverpool starts this term, and only twice have the Reds failed to win when Salah has contributed to a goal.
With seven goals and one assist to his name against the Toffees, the occasion has never negatively affected Salah’s performance, so expect business as usual when the 32-year-old rocks up at Goodison.
In difficult conditions, by no means will this be an easy assignment for the league leaders. However, if they do go on to win, it is difficult to envisage their talisman not being at the heart of it.
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