Premier League Top Goalscorer Betting Tips
Erling Haaland has won the Premier League Golden Boot in three of his four seasons at Manchester City, and the Norwegian is odds-on to make it four from five this term.
He scored 27 goals in 35 appearances last season, matching his tally from 2023/24. His remarkable 36-goal haul in his debut campaign remains a Premier League record, surpassing the previous mark of 34 shared by Andy Cole and Alan Shearer, both of whom reached that total during 42-game seasons.
A fourth Golden Boot would put Haaland level with Mohamed Salah, who took top honours in 2024/25. Salah is no longer in the division, but the other player to outscore Haaland that season, Alexander Isak, certainly is.
Tipster Ben Smith has assessed five of the market leaders and, at the end of this article, delivers his
free football betting tips
for the Premier League top goalscorer market. Odds are from
BetMGM.
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Erling Haaland (4/6)
There is reason to be cautious about Haaland at such a short price this season, particularly following Rodri's move to Barcelona. Haaland's lowest Premier League return came in 2024/25, when the midfielder missed almost the entire campaign through injury.
Rodri is not a direct creator for the centre-forward, but his absence had a major impact on City's structure and ability to control matches. Haaland subsequently received fewer high-quality opportunities, scoring 22 goals from roughly 22 xG. The drop in his goal return was therefore more a consequence of City's problems around him than any significant decline in his own finishing.
City have invested heavily in Elliot Anderson this summer, but with Rodri and Bernardo Silva both gone, there are questions over how their reshaped midfield will function.
Alexander Isak (9/1)
Alexander Isak endured a nightmare first year at Liverpool. He arrived without a proper pre-season following his drawn-out departure from Newcastle United and struggled for fitness and form before fracturing his fibula just as things were beginning to improve.
There are far more reasons for optimism this time around. Isak came through the World Cup injury-free and produced some encouraging performances for Sweden, while he has also found the net against Monaco in pre-season.
Most importantly, Hugo Ekitike's long-term injury leaves Isak as Liverpool's only recognised senior striker. If he can stay fit, he should have little competition for minutes, and there are no excuses for him not to deliver a big goal tally.
Igor Thiago (12/1)
Igor Thiago's first full season at Brentford was blighted by injury, but we saw the best of him last term as he scored 22 Premier League goals, a tally bettered only by Haaland.
The Brazilian has returned from the World Cup looking sharp in pre-season. He opened the scoring during a 45-minute appearance against Rennes before producing two goals and an assist in Brentford's 7-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt.
Penalties were a significant part of Thiago's success last season, with eight of his 22 league goals coming from the spot. He remains Brentford's first-choice penalty taker heading into the new campaign, which should give him a steady supply of opportunities.
Joao Pedro (14/1)
Joao Pedro was left out of Carlo Ancelotti's Brazil squad for the World Cup, but Chelsea could be the beneficiaries of that decision. The forward has enjoyed a full summer of rest and an uninterrupted pre-season, scoring seven times in five appearances.
His tally of 15 Premier League goals last term was already a solid return, and the underlying numbers suggest there is scope for more. Pedro produced around 14.6 non-penalty xG despite playing fewer than 2,700 minutes, while his early displays suggest he has taken quickly to Xabi Alonso's system.
Viktor Gyokeres (20/1)
Labelled a flop by some during his first year at Arsenal, Viktor Gyokeres’ final numbers were hardly disastrous. The Swede scored 14 Premier League goals despite being limited to 26 starts, a respectable return given the criticism that came his way during the campaign.
The bigger concern ahead of this term is his place in the team. Kai Havertz took over as Arsenal's preferred striker towards the end of last season and was given the nod in the Community Shield on Sunday, scoring in the 3-0 win over Manchester City. Gyokeres therefore looks a risky Golden Boot bet with no assurance he can win back a regular starting place.
Our Tip: Alexander Isak (9/1)
Unlike the other main threats to Haaland, Isak has already produced two 20-goal Premier League campaigns, scoring 21 and 23 in his final two years at Newcastle.
Pedro is yet to reach that mark and, while Thiago managed it last term, Isak is preferred at only a slightly shorter price. He will lead the line for a title contender and, with Ekitike sidelined until the new year, should have the striker role largely to himself.
Salah's departure also leaves plenty of goals to be replaced, while penalties could further strengthen Isak's case. There is no guarantee he will take over spot-kick duties, with Dominik Szoboszlai another contender, but if Isak steps up for Liverpool's first penalty, his current price could quickly look very big.
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