
Leeds United have seen their odds slashed to achieve a top-four finish in the Premier League this term. At the start of the campaign, reputable UK bookmaker Bet365 advertised a longish price of 33/1 on that outcome.
But the Peacocks are now available at a much shorter 12/1, which is certainly intriguing. Bet365 has also revised Leeds’ price for a top-six finish, which has been cut from 9/1 to 4/1.
Although the Premier League is still in the early stages to make any cast-iron judgments, Leeds have flown out of the traps, and there is a feel-good factor around Elland Road. With nine points posted from a maximum of 15, the Yorkshire outfit have already defied expectations, and they are sitting in fifth place.
According to football analytics expert Opta, Leeds should really be sixth in the table based on xG (expected goals) for and against. Nevertheless, Leeds have been virtually impregnable, conceding just three goals, the joint-best defensive record in the league alongside Everton.
Farke has masterminded an incredible turnaround given Leeds secured Premier League survival with three games to spare last term. To underline his influence, Farke has lost just 33 of his 155 matches in charge of Leeds, the fewest defeats of any manager across the same corresponding period in the club’s history.
Previously a maligned striker during his time at Everton, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has looked revitalised, and he’s been reaping the rewards at Leeds. Yes, he’s hit the ground running again this term, firing three goals in five Premier League outings.
After netting a double in Leeds’ 4-1 thrashing of Newcastle United earlier this month, Calvert-Lewin has scored 16 goals since signing for Leeds in the summer of 2025, and no English player has more in the competition during that time.
Integral to Leeds’ out-of-possession play, Calvert-Lewin has proved to be an industrious worker too, which has benefitted the side. Since the start of last season, he tops the Premier League rankings for pressures applied (3,605) and high pressures (2,613) across the pitch.
Underpinning Leeds’ excellence has been a strong spine. Alongside the likes of reliable performers such as Calvert-Lewin, midfield supremo Anton Stach, and captain marvel Ethan Ampadu, Farke was canny in the summer transfer window.
While splashing out £40 million on James Trafford may have seemed like a gamble, the former Manchester City shot-stopper has been an assured presence between the sticks. He’s pulled off a record-high 20 saves this term, and he boasts the best save percentage. And Bet365’s football trading expert, Steve Freeth, believes the numbers suggest Leeds are where they are on merit.
He said:
“The model is rating Leeds as a top-half side, and the clues are there given they went off at 4/6 against Crystal Palace. Well-liked in the market, Leeds are creating chances and conceding few.
“The spine of Trafford, Muharemovic, Ampadu and Calvert-Lewin is settled, with the goalkeeper representing a major upgrade on Illan Meslier.”
In the midst of a three-week international break, Leeds can take stock and enjoy a breather before their next Premier League game away to reigning champions Arsenal on Saturday, October 10. Leeds will naturally have loftier goals this term, and although they are aiming to secure a Champions League berth for the first time in 26 years, they will want to keep themselves grounded.

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