
The extended international break is drawing to a close, and the quarter-final picture in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League is beginning to take shape ahead of Matchday 4.
Defending champions Portugal became the first nation to book their place in the last eight, with Sunday’s 2-1 victory over Norway maintaining their perfect record. The Norwegians impressed in reaching the World Cup quarter-finals during the summer, but now find themselves bottom of Group A4 and facing the threat of relegation. Fellow Scandinavians Denmark are currently best placed to follow Portugal into the knockouts.
Spain have also put one foot in the quarter-finals after collecting maximum points from their opening three matches. The world champions travel to Croatia on Tuesday looking to extend that perfect start against a side still reeling from the heaviest defeat in their history.
England ran riot in Rijeka on Saturday, recording a remarkable 7-0 victory to move onto six points. Another win against Czechia would leave Thomas Tuchel’s side closing in on a top-two finish in a League A group for the first time since the inaugural Nations League campaign.
Germany’s struggles under Jurgen Klopp have provided the biggest surprise so far. Die Mannschaft sit three points behind unbeaten Netherlands and Greece in Group A2, leaving them with little room for error. Their remaining fixtures against Serbia and the Dutch now look crucial, although even two victories may not be enough without help elsewhere.
Group A1 is similarly competitive. France lead the way, but Belgium and Italy are within striking distance after the Azzurri held Les Bleus to a draw in Saint-Denis on Friday.
There is also plenty at stake in League B. Switzerland have taken complete control of Group B1 with three wins from three, leaving Scotland and Slovenia level on four points. Their meeting at Hampden Park on Tuesday could prove decisive in the race to reach the promotion play-offs.
Football tipster Ben Smith has selected five bets from Tuesday’s Nations League fixtures with BetMGM and combined them into a 27/1 accumulator.
Croatia could hardly be approaching this game in worse defensive shape, having shipped 11 goals across defeats to Spain and England. Saturday’s 7-0 humiliation may prompt changes, but there is unlikely to be a quick fix against the strongest attacking side in international football.
Spain have scored at least three times in every Nations League match so far, including four in the reverse fixture, and their substitutes should ensure the level does not drop significantly if Luis de la Fuente rotates.
Even without Nico Williams and Ferran Torres, Spain still possess more than enough quality to expose a Croatian defence whose confidence must be on the floor.
England’s 7-0 victory over Croatia showed what can happen when their attacking players click, with Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka and Jude Bellingham all heavily involved. Tuchel also has enough depth to make alterations to the side without significantly weakening it.
Czechia have conceded at least twice in eight consecutive League A matches and will be without suspended centre-back Ladislav Krejci at Wembley. They have also lost all three games in this group and offered little attacking threat during their recent defeat to England.
With the Three Lions likely to dominate possession and territory, two home goals and a third successive clean sheet looks a realistic outcome.
The goalless scoreline in the reverse fixture did not reflect Scotland’s superiority, with Pocognoli’s side producing 17 shots, four big chances and 2.16 xG while limiting Slovenia to four efforts. They followed that display with a deserved victory in North Macedonia and now return to Hampden in good shape.
Slovenia have won only once in seven away games and remain without Benjamin Sesko. A similar Scottish performance should bring all three points.
Dan Ndoye’s international numbers make him difficult to ignore, with the winger averaging 1.17 goals and 3.28 shots per 90 for Switzerland since the beginning of last summer.
His output has remained strong during this Nations League campaign, registering 13 attempts across three appearances and scoring against Slovenia last time out.
The Nottingham Forest winger managed six shots in the reverse fixture against North Macedonia, and another productive evening looks within reach.
Estonia’s three group matches have produced only three goals in total, with Jurgen Henn’s side scoring twice and conceding once.
Each of their last seven internationals have stayed under 2.5 goals, while only two of Iceland’s previous eight fixtures outside Iceland saw both teams score.
The reverse meeting finished 1-1, and another low-scoring contest could be on the cards in Tallinn.
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