Nottingham Forest – Chelsea FC Reserve
Tip:
Over: 7.5Chelsea Goal Kicks
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A lot is on the line in this crunch tie at the City Ground. Nottingham Forest are virtually one win from safety, whereas Chelsea need luck an a flawless end to the season to secure a European spot that seemed most unlikely a few months back.
Tricky Trees
Nottingham Forest have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons this season. Points deduction, their crazy owners and controversial anti-referee statements have been prominent in recent weeks for the Reds. Despite this, they are just one win from safetry at the end of this tumultuous season.
Nuno Espirito Santos side are three points clear of Luton with a far superior goal difference, so they know a win will secure another season of Premier League football. A fighting comeback to emerge victorious against Sheffield United epitomised the fighting spirit shown by Forest in recent weeks.
Possessing a number of attacking talent such as Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White as well as the mecurial talent Murillo means that Forest are in good stead to make a push up the table next year - provided they survive.
Chelsea Building Momentum
To the joy of many neutral fans, Chelsea have endured a torrid couple of years. This season looked set to go down the same route, but Mauricio Pochettino has steadied the ship in recent weeks and his side have now lost just once in their last 12 league games as they chase an unlikely European finish.
A second-half fight back to draw 2-2 at Aston Villa was followed by 2-0 and 5-0 home win against London rivals Tottenham and West Ham respectively. While Todd Boehly and the Chelsea faithful will have expected much more due to the large sums of money shelled out on transfer fees, these recent weeks have given Chelsea foundations to build off.
|
Premier League
|
GP |
W |
D |
L |
GF/GA |
+/- |
PTS |
Form |
| 1 |
 Liverpool |
21 |
15 |
5 |
1 |
50:20 |
30 |
50 |
|
| 2 |
 Arsenal |
22 |
12 |
8 |
2 |
43:21 |
22 |
44 |
|
| 3 |
 Nottingham Forest |
21 |
12 |
5 |
4 |
30:20 |
10 |
41 |
|
| 4 |
 Newcastle |
22 |
11 |
5 |
6 |
38:26 |
12 |
38 |
|
| 5 |
 Chelsea |
21 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
41:26 |
15 |
37 |
|
| 6 |
 Bournemouth |
22 |
10 |
7 |
5 |
36:26 |
10 |
37 |
|
| 7 |
 Aston Villa |
22 |
10 |
6 |
6 |
33:34 |
-1 |
36 |
|
| 8 |
 Manchester City |
21 |
10 |
5 |
6 |
38:29 |
9 |
35 |
|
| 9 |
 Fulham |
22 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
34:30 |
4 |
33 |
|
| 10 |
 Brighton & Hove Albion |
21 |
7 |
10 |
4 |
32:29 |
3 |
31 |
|
| 11 |
 Brentford |
22 |
8 |
4 |
10 |
40:39 |
1 |
28 |
|
| 12 |
 Crystal Palace |
22 |
6 |
9 |
7 |
25:28 |
-3 |
27 |
|
| 13 |
 Manchester United |
21 |
7 |
5 |
9 |
26:29 |
-3 |
26 |
|
| 14 |
 West Ham United |
22 |
7 |
5 |
10 |
27:43 |
-16 |
26 |
|
| 15 |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
21 |
7 |
3 |
11 |
43:32 |
11 |
24 |
|
| 16 |
 Everton |
20 |
3 |
8 |
9 |
15:26 |
-11 |
17 |
|
| 17 |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
21 |
4 |
4 |
13 |
31:48 |
-17 |
16 |
|
| 18 |
 Ipswich Town |
21 |
3 |
7 |
11 |
20:37 |
-17 |
16 |
|
| 19 |
 Leicester City |
22 |
3 |
5 |
14 |
23:48 |
-25 |
14 |
|
| 20 |
 Southampton |
21 |
1 |
3 |
17 |
13:47 |
-34 |
6 |
|
Head to Head
The sides have met 97 times in history, although only nine times since 2000. Chelsea have the slight beating of Nottingham Forest, winning 40 compared to the Reds 27. However, against the run of play, Forest beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, running out 1-0 winners despite having just 24% of the possession.
Tip:
Over 7.5 Chelsea Goal Kicks
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Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea
Pressure From Forest
Forest have drawn 9, 8, 8 goal kicks in their last three games
Leaky Chelsea
Chelsea are without a clean sheet in their last 13 league away games
Our Betting Tip for Today
Chelsea go into this game as 2.10 favourites, compared to Nottingham Forest at 3.20. I think Chelsea will win, but I would want slightly bigger odds, so I will delve into another market.
Tricky Trees
The magnitude of this game for the hosts can not be understated. They need a win to secure safety so expect a big performance in front of a packed out, boisterous City Ground.
However, I feel Chelsea have more quality, so they should take the lead. Therefore, I feel there is value in Chelsea goal kicks as they chase the game. At home, Forest have drawn 9,8,8 goal kicks from their opponents in the last three games. This includes against title favourites Man City.
Chelsea only drew four goal kicks against Aston Villa, but were behind for the majority of the game. However, the previous two games they conceded 9 and 11. With Chelsea expected to take the lead early and the backing of the boisterous City ground behind Nottingham Forest, we should see an increase in goal kicks.
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