Tip:
Wirtz under 0.5 shots on target
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One of the more intriguing last 16 ties sees two former European Championship winners face off in Dortmund. Hosts Germany are strong favourites against Denmark, with the Euro 2020 semi-finalists yet to kick into gear.
Germany leave it late
The Germans cruised into the last 16 after winning their first two games, but on matchday three they needed a stoppage-time leveller to rescue a point against Switzerland and top the group. The test against the Swiss was a timely reminder for Julian Nagelsmann’s team that they won’t have it all their own way at Euro 2024.
Die Mannschaft were something of an unknown quantity heading into the Euros having endured a torrid 2023 with three wins, two draws, and six defeats. But victories over France and the Netherlands in March appear to have been a turning point and that momentum was carried into their opening night demolition of Scotland.
Jamal Musiala has provided a much-needed attacking spark, but there are some concerns at the back with Jonathan Tah suspended and Antonio Rudiger nursing a thigh injury.
Winless Danes well behaved
Denmark secured second spot in Group C under quite extraordinary circumstances. Having posted exactly the same results as Slovenia - two 1-1 draws and a 0-0 - the placings were decided on disciplinary records. Both sets of players had been shown six yellow cards but Slovenia’s assistant manager was cautioned earlier in the tournament which proved decisive.
That is not to say that finishing second has given Denmark any particular advantage in their pursuit of another deep run at the Euros. Instead of facing Portugal, they will play Germany. And rather than a possible match-up with France or Belgium in the quarter-finals, it will likely be Spain.
The Danes will be disappointed to have not won a game at Euro 2024, but the performance against England offers some comfort as they prepare to take on another of the leading nations.
Great Dane memories versus Germany
Germany and Denmark are no strangers to one another at tournaments. Die Mannschaft have a much better overall head-to-head record but on the big stage, the Danes have held their own.
At Euro 1992, the Red and Whites achieved their greatest-ever triumph by upsetting Germany in the final. Goals from John Jensen and Kim Vilfort handed Denmark their first and only major title.
The other two European Championship meetings between the pair have gone Germany’s way, while the Danes came out on top in their only World Cup encounter in 1986.
Tip:
Wirtz under 0.5 shots on target
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Your view of Denmark’s form simply depends on whether your glass is half-full or half-empty. Optimistic Danes will point to Portugal’s success eight years ago as well as Germany’s recent knockout struggles.
The Germans had reached at least the semi-finals at every Euros and World Cup from 2006 to 2016, but the tables have turned since then.
Germany vs. Denmark
1
The last time a team advanced to the Euros knockouts without winning a game, they won the tournament (Portugal in 2016).
2
Denmark are unbeaten in 2024, having won three and drawn four in total.
3
Germany, also undefeated this year, have not won a knockout game at a major tournament since Euro 2016.
Our Betting Tip for Today
Florian Wirtz is one of the most exciting young players at Germany’s disposal but he is utilised very differently by Nagelsmann to how he is deployed by Bayer Leverkusen boss Xabi Alonso. The best bet for this match is for the 21-year-old to register under 0.5 shots on target.
Wirtz less of a threat off the left
Wirtz kicked Euro 2024 into life by breaking the deadlock against a poor Scotland side. That was a game in which Germany were allowed to move forward at will, and it felt like everyone in white was able to get in on the act.
His second international goal was the only shot on target Wirtz has had at the tournament. Operating off the left flank, he has not been able to get into the shooting positions that allowed him to net 18 times in all competitions for Leverkusen last season.
Wirtz managed one off-target effort from the edge of the area versus Hungary, and no shots at all against Switzerland. There have been calls for Niclas Füllkrug to come into the starting XI for either Wirtz or Kai Havertz, so there is a chance that this bet is void if Nagelsmann is aligned with that thinking.
But assuming he does start, I’m mindful of the fact that Wirtz has been substituted in every game so far - twice around the hour mark. He has actually never completed 90 minutes for Die Mannschaft and he might be one that Nagelsmann considers hooking first if his team are chasing a goal.
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