Key Points
- Today’s betting tip won this race in 2024
- He is handicapped to win it again today
- This horse will relish the Heavy going here
Today we have Heavy ground at Haydock, which can be great for betting angles. Many horses cannot handle this track in these conditions, and those who can are worth their weight in gold, which includes today’s 16/1 betting tip!
For those of you who are new, I’m RacingGav, the resident horse racing expert here. I publish several articles each week, mostly
free horse racing tips, which are made up of daily betting tips, antepost picks, and a Lucky 15 for the ITV Racing action on Saturdays.
In reference to antepost selections, be sure to check out my betting tip for the
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
at the 2027 Cheltenham Festival. The horse I’ve picked is currently available at 66/1, but he races on Tuesday, so that massive price could easily collapse with a strong run!
Betting advice
- 14:17 Haydock -
On The River
- @ 16/1 (3 places) -
1pt each way
Back with bet365 for the best odds!
Most of the market has On The River priced at about 11/1, but at the time of writing, the
best horse racing odds
of 16/1 are available at bet365! In addition bet365 has a great welcome offer for new customers. If you sign up and
bet £10 you’ll get £30 of free bets. Make sure you check this deal out if you plan to back On The River today.
The wetter the better for On The River!
The aptly-named On The River will relish today’s Heavy going and the fact that there’s more rain coming won’t trouble him in the slightest. But that’s not the only reason I’ve chosen him today, and in the rest of this article I’ll tell you why.
On The River won this race in 2024
On the river has run in the last two renewals of this race. Back in 2024 the race took place on Heavy going, and On The River came home with his head in front.
He came back to defend his crown last year, but on Good to Soft going, he only managed to place fourth. He ran with credit, but ultimately the pace on the firmer ground proved too fast for him.
On The River is handicapped to win this race again
When On The River won in 2024, his official handicap mark was 80. He also had the same rating when he won at Carlisle in June 2025. Interestingly, all of his last four wins have come off that exact mark of 80, and with 11 total wins to his credit, he clearly knows his job.
This year he returns to the race off a mark of 78, which is 2lb below his previous winning mark. On that basis, he is clearly handicapped to strike, if he puts his best foot forward. If you look at his last run he was repeatedly denied a clear run, yet still managed to come second, which was pretty eye-catching, and he definitely looks to be in form to me!
The race conditions look perfect for On The River
As mentioned, the official going is already Heavy, there is a further 7.4mm of rain expected during Thursday night, and another 6mm due on Friday, with most to come ahead of On The River’s 14.17 race. With two wins and two seconds from six starts on Heavy going, it’s clear he relishes these testing conditions.
This is also his time of year to shine, with two wins and one second place from five starts in the month of October. Today’s race set up will also be perfect for him. As a general rule, he is a held up horse, and consequently needs a strong pace to aim for. Usually Sujet, Food For Thought and Tina’s Indian all like to go forward, and Empirestateofmind is unlikely to be far away from the pace either. As such, On The River could not wish for a better set up.
Can On The River regain this race?
As you can see, On The River has an awful lot in his favour. He won this race in 2024 and the conditions this year are very similar. His record on Heavy going and in races at this time of year is exceptional, and hopefully he can add to that today. He is handicapped to strike at 2lb below his last winning mark, and the mark he won this race off in 2024. The expected set up of the race should also suit his tactics well, so pretty much everything is in his favour!
In terms of negatives, he needs to overcome a poor run last time out. However, that latest run was on the All Weather at Southwell, so it’s easy to forgive as he is better on turf. With his hold up style, he is also reliant on luck in-running, as he will need to work his way through the field. As we saw at Beverley on his last turf start, things didn’t go his way, and he was repeatedly denied a clear run.
With everything considered, I think On The River is an exceptional each way bet at Haydock today. For that reason I believe he warrants a strong 1pt each way, and that is what I’m advising.
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