Key Points
- Today’s betting tip sits on a dangerous mark
- First time cheekpieces are applied today
- A stall on the stand side is the place to be
Welcome to Friday’s article! If you’re new around here, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert for Betting.co.uk and I'm responsible for the
free horse racing tips
you'll find on the site. Today's betting tip runs at Newcastle and I believe she will easily outrun her 14/1 odds.
My regular tipping content consists of daily selections, antepost picks and a Lucky 15 each Saturday. There is also non-tipping content such as horses and trainers to follow, big race trends and educational guides.
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Betting advice
- 18:45 Newcastle -
Just Queen High
- @ 14/1 -
1pt Win
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This filly could have been laid out for this!
Just Queen High started her career with Dylan Cunha but was moved to Ian Williams after just seven starts, despite winning two of them. Ian is a shrewd trainer and I think he could be ready to strike with her. In the next sections of this article, I’ll explain the logic behind today’s bet.
Just Queen High sits on a dangerous mark
As touched upon in the previous section, Just Queen High won two races for Dylan Cunha. The first was a Maiden at Nottingham, before she won again over the same C&D in handicap company off a mark of 68.
When she moved from Dylan Cunha to Ian Williams, she was rated 72. However, in just three runs, that mark has tumbled down 9lb to just 63, 5lb below her handicap win. In those three races, she had some excuses and received some tentative handling to only beat one rival home out of 27. Ian knows how to handicap one for a particular day though, so I’d take the recent form with a pinch of salt.
The first time cheekpieces are applied today
That handicap win came over 6f in Heavy ground on a big galloping track. She stayed on powerfully that day to win nicely and hit the line the fastest in the field. She shaped like she would stay further that day and her pedigree suggests she could too. Her Sire was a 6f sprinter in his short four race career, however, her Dam was by Galileo. Just Queen High’s half-sister - Miss Kubelik won over 1m and her Dam - Lucy Lou placed over 1m 4f. The Dam was also a sister to useful winners Beyond Conceit and Min Alemarat who had form over further and she was out of a Listed winner.
Interestingly, the aforementioned handicap win at Nottingham came in first time blinkers. She responded well to first time headgear that day and hopefully the same trick will work again here, as they apply first time cheekpieces. The first time headgear could well be the telltale sign that she will be trying her best today or it could just be a sign of desperation - Hopefully the former!
A stall on the stand side is the place to be
At Newcastle, I believe the best place to be drawn on the straight track (up to 1m) is high i.e. towards the stands side rail. Just Queen High has landed the highest draw of all in stall 13 here and I think that is perfect. That rail can act like a golden highway at Newcastle and I’d certainly rather be drawn there than low.
I do wonder if they could revert from hold up tactics to more aggressive tactics and try to make all up that stands side rail in the first time cheekpieces. However, that will be a gamble on her stamina over this stiff 7f. Alternatively, they could just be using the headgear to sharpen her up, so she travels in behind comfortably before being ridden for luck up the rail late on.
Can Just Queen High land a gamble?
My understanding is that the owners of Just Queen High are poker players with other horses in their ownership named similarly such as Just King High. Therefore, they literally like a gamble and I could see one unfolding on Just Queen High today. She is on a dangerous mark and steps back up in trip with a run under her belt. She has landed what I’d consider to be the perfect draw and she gets first time cheekpieces. On this drop down to Class 6 (0-65) company for the first time, she could outclass these rivals.
On the flip side, there are negatives for Just Queen High. In her last five starts, she has only beaten home 3/52 rivals with just 1/27 rivals beaten during her short time to date with Ian Williams. This stiff 7f at Newcastle will also be the stiffest test she has faced, so she has to prove she has the stamina for this trip.
All aspects taken into account, I think this race goes one of two ways for Just Queen High. I would say that she will either bolt in or tail off. As a result, I’m going to play on the nose here. Rather than half stakes each way, I’m going to play the full 1pt total stake to win!
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