Key Points
- Today’s betting tip has excuses for his defeats this season
- The step back up to 1m will bring out the best in him
- This horse has never run a bad race at Ascot
This week’s
free horse racing tips
have been hitting the woodwork with Dandy’s Angel finishing second on Wednesday, and Austrian Theory finishing fourth yesterday. The positive is that both horses returned place money, so we are in profit this week. Hopefully today’s betting tip can up his game and win for us!
If you’re new to my content, I’m RacingGav and since March 2025 I have been the resident horse racing expert here at Betting.co.uk. Along with daily betting tips, I publish non-tipping content like guides and big race trends, but I enjoy tackling the antepost markets too. Just last week I put up an antepost pick for the
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Betting advice
- 13:55 Ascot -
Cancan In The Rain
@ 9/2 (3 places) -
1pt each way
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This horse can give Gihan Arnolda his seventh winner
I flagged Gihan Arnolda as a wildcard trainer in
the June edition of my UK trainers to follow. Gihan has enjoyed a strong start to his training career with six winners on the board, and a strike rate of 16%. If you remove the two-year-olds in his yard from the list, his strike rate rises to 18%. I think Cancan In The Rain could well be his seventh winner today, and in the rest of this article I’ll explain why.
Cancan In The Rain has excuses for his defeats this season
Although he hasn’t won during this campaign, Cancan In The Rain has been running very respectably in defeat. His form figures across his four races this season read 4483, but he hasn’t been beaten by more than 5.25 lengths and otherwise, he has always finished within three lengths of the winner. He also has excuses for his runs to date.
On his seasonal reappearance and stable debut at Yarmouth, he shaped in need of the run. At Ascot, he was not helped by challenging on the far side of the track. York is a track influenced by draw bias, and he was drawn high, which is the wrong side to be. Lastly at Newmarket, he had to wait for room before making his run and couldn’t quite reel in the leaders.
The step back up to 1m will bring out the best in Cancan In The Rain
As well as encountering problems at Newmarket, Cancan In The Rain shaped like a horse that would benefit from stepping back up to 1m. Interestingly, that is exactly what he does today, so trainer Gihan Arnolda must be viewing this horse from the same angle as me.
Cancan In The Rain’s latest win was over 1m at Newmarket in August last year, off a 4lb lower mark. That said, he has also won over 1m earlier in his career off today’s mark of 76. Although I think he’ll enjoy the 1m trip, there doesn’t look to be a huge amount of pace in this race, so having the speed for 7f could benefit him if it becomes a tactical affair.
Cancan In The Rain has never run a bad race at Ascot!
If I had been asked to pick a track for Cancan In The Rain, it would have been either Newmarket or Ascot, so I’m very pleased to see him turning up at Ascot today. He has already raced here twice, finishing fourth in fields of 17 on both occasions.
I believe both of those runs can be marked up. The first was on Good to Soft going, and I think he prefers it quicker than that. His second run here was back in July, where he challenged on the far side of the track, which left him at a disadvantage. With a central draw today, jockey Georgie Benson should have plenty of options in terms of how and where to ride him. Plus, the faster going today is in his favour.
Will Cancan In The Rain record his first win for Gihan Arnolda?
Despite being the best horse in Gihan Arnolda’s stable, Cancan In The Rain is yet to win for him. A victory feels overdue, but I think it will come today. The 1m trip seems to suit, and,should bring out the best in him. Likewise, I think he’ll enjoy returning to Ascot today.
In terms of negatives, he is 4lb above his last winning mark but he has won off this mark previously. Also, there is always a risk attached to backing a horse in a race for amateur jockeys. However, I feel Cancan In The Rain has a fantastic chance here, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t come home in the first three. An each way play at 9/2 won’t be everybody’s cup of tea, but with the majority of our stake back if he finishes second or third, I think it’s the smart play here.
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