Key Points
- Four selections from Ascot & Keeneland
- The odds vary from 13/2 through to 14/1
- All four races can be watched live on ITV Racing
Every Saturday I put together a Lucky 15 across the ITV Racing action. This weekend, three of my selections run at Ascot, and the fourth lines up for the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Keeneland. The horses I’ve picked vary in price from 13/2 to 14/1, and I believe all four are underestimated in the market.
If you’re just finding my content here for the first time, then welcome aboard. I’m RacingGav, the resident horse racing expert here. I publish
free horse racing tips
most days, plus a Lucky 15 like this one every Saturday. Incidentally,
my main betting tip for today
is already live, so make sure to check that out when you’re done here.
Betting advice - An each way Lucky 15
- 14:00 Ascot -
Gabriel’s Getaway
@ 13/2 (4 places)
- 14:33 Ascot -
Transmission
@ 11/1 (3 places)
- 15:43 Ascot -
Moveit Like Minnie
@ 9/1 (5 places)
- 21:36 Keeneland -
Ethical Diamond
@ 14/1 (4 places)
bet365 has the best terms!
At the time of writing, the
best horse racing odds
for our Lucky 15 are available at bet365 who are offering 13,499/1, while the rest of the market varies between 8,042/1 and 12,824/1. bet365 also has superb place terms, with four, three, five and four places across the four races. Last but not least, they also have a fantastic new customer offer. If you
bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets. If you’re not already a bet365 customer, you’re missing out!
There is tremendous value on offer with today’s quartet!
I believe that all four of the horses I’ve picked for today’s Lucky 15 are underestimated. With the belief they all should be shorter, their current prices represent value and they are perfect for this type of bet. In the rest of this article, I’ll break down the case for each of the four horses to help you understand my logic.
Gabriel’s Getaway @ 13/2 - On today’s terms, he has a fantastic chance of winning!
Gabriel’s Getaway ran in last year’s renewal of this race. He raced from 7lb out of the Handicap but he almost prevailed regardless. Given he was beaten by less than a length, you might conclude that without that extra 7lb to carry, he would have won that day. This time he fares much better as his mark has dropped by 4lb, meaning he is 11lb better off than last year.
Teddy Blue and Shakeyatailfeather are back again this year, but Gabriel’s Getaway is weighted to beat them both. Many of the others also have questions to answer too. Ben Pauling’s horses often need their first runs, and Vanderpoel is not the easiest horse to keep right, so he’s a favourite I’d look to oppose. Haas Boy is quirky to say the least, so I wouldn’t fear him either. Martator is handicapped to the hilt and Boothill is 11 years old now. While I’m sure it will be competitive on the day, this is about as winnable as a £100,000 Handicap will ever be. Hopefully Gabriel’s Getaway, who is also my main betting tip today, can step up and deliver.
https://www.betting.co.uk/tips/horse-racing/saturday-31-october-2026-ascot/
Transmission @ 11/1 - He’s race fit and first time blinkers go on!
Our second Lucky 15 selection races at Ascot in another £100,000 Handicap but this time over 3m. I have decided to side with Neil Mulholland’s Transmission for this one. On his best form, he is capable of being competitive off his current mark of 133, having won by 12 lengths off a 4lb lower mark in February, and then placing off 4lb higher in April. He has already had a prep run over Hurdles, and he wears blinkers for the first time today. He has won previously on Good, Good to Soft and Soft going, so he is versatile groundwise, which is another bonus.
Just like the opening leg of this Lucky 15, again I feel that the horses at the top of the market are opposable types. Viroflay looks handicapped to his best and has to carry top weight of 12st here. Califet En Vol is a horse that blows hot and cold, so you never know which version will turn up. We then have Henry’s Friend who has been allocated a hefty 11st 12lb. He won this race last year carrying 2lb less, but lost his way in the second half of the season. He is nine years old now and has had further wind surgery, so he needs to prove that he retains ability.
Moveit Like Minnie @ 9/1 - A replication of last year’s effort would give him every chance!
In last year’s renewal of this race, Moveit Like Minnie was very unlucky to bump into two very well handicapped rivals. The 1-2 that day was Alexei and Indemnity, with Moveit Like Minnie three lengths behind Alexei, and just a neck behind Indemnity. Alexei was rated 127 that day and he is now rated 31lb higher at 158 after finishing fourth in the Champion Hurdle and third in the Aintree Hurdle. Indemnity was rated 121 this time last year, and now he is rated 136, so he is 15lb higher.
Alexei is now being campaigned for another crack at the Champion Hurdle, but Indemnity and Moveit Like Minnie return for this year’s renewal. With Indemnity rated 15lb higher, and Moveit Like Minnie dropping 2lb from 121 to 119, there is now a 17lb swing at the weights.
With the difference between them just a neck at the finish, you would expect Moveit Like Minnie to reverse that form.He also comes here race fit after a run at Hexham earlier this month, when he was denied by another well handicapped rival in the form of Mr McLoughlan. A repeat of last year’s performance in this race would give him every chance today, and his 9/1 price tag clearly underestimates him.
Ethical Diamond @ 14/1 - Back to back Breeders’ Cup Turf wins?
Last year, Willie Mullins became a Breeders’ Cup winner by landing the Breeders’ Cup Turf with Ethical Diamond. This horse is building quite the CV, with a fourth in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, a win at Royal Ascot, and to cap it off he won the Ebor Handicap too. In the Breeders’ Cup Turf last year he raced from stall 14, the widest of all. A mightily impressive ride from Dylan Browne McMonagle and a huge effort from Ethical Diamond saw them come from the rear of the field to lead within the final 125 yards, and win.
After a trip to Meydan in March, Ethical Diamond was put away until Royal Ascot, where he put on an impressive performance. He went on to win at Leopardstown, before heading to the Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational Stakes in September, where he came second to Tiffany. Whilst some of the horses competing here at Keeneland have had very busy campaigns already, Willie Mullins has slowly brought Ethical Diamond to the boil, as he bids to become a back to back Breeders’ Cup winner.
In terms of his draw in this year’s renewal, it’s like chalk and cheese. From the widest draw possible last time, to the lowest draw this year. That will most likely mean a change of tactics to a more positive style, but Dylan Browne McMonagle and Ethical Diamond are more than capable of adjusting. At 14/1, I think he is overpriced as a repeat contender with a genuine chance of winning again.
Have I found value in today’s selections?
As always I have tried to find value selections for you. There are plenty of hot favourites across the ITV Racing coverage, and I could easily have opted for a Lucky 15 by picking the low hanging fruit. However, that’s not my style, so we once again play our Lucky 15 each way, complete with value prices.
Last week, Ancient State managed to place at Doncaster at 8/1. Then O’Moore Park won at Cheltenham at 25/1. Those two results saw us more than double our initial stake, and hopefully we can enjoy more success with today’s selections.
As I often say, with prices like these, four places would bring a handsome return, but at least a couple of wins would be great. Could we land the full house? Well, you have to be in it to win it, so let’s find out!
Take your pick from these bookmaker offers!
Everybody loves a free bet and there are plenty of betting offers for horse racing here waiting for you to claim them. Just take a minute to explore the offers and see which suits you best. There is no harm in taking a look and I’m sure you’ll find it worth your while.
https://www.betting.co.uk/sports/offers/horse-betting/
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