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Horse Racing Betting Tips - Saturday 10 October 2026 - Newmarket - The Cesarewitch Handicap

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Publish Date: 10/10/2026

Fact checked by: Jordan Noble

Key Points

Today’s betting tip has strong course and distance form
He is back down to his last winning mark
This horse has a fantastic low racing weight

For today’s article, I have given myself the small task of finding the winner of the Cesarewitch Handicap. For those not familiar, this is a 29-runner Heritage Handicap that takes place over 2m 2f at Newmarket. There's a valuable prize pot of £175,000, with more than £90,000 going to the winner, so it has understandably attracted a very deep and competitive field!

For those new around here, I’m RacingGav and I provide free horse racing tips for Betting.co.uk. You’ll find a mix of daily selections like this one, antepost bets and on Saturdays I put up a Lucky 15 for the ITV Racing action. I also publish non-tipping content like horses and trainers to follow, educational guides and big race trends, so there is something for everyone! This week’s Lucky 15 is already live, so make sure you check it out when you’re finished with this one.

Betting advice

15:40 Newmarket - Alphonse Le Grand - @ 20/1 (6 places) - 0.5pt each way

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Alphonse Le Grande can follow Aaim To Prosper!

Back in 2010, a horse called Aaim To Prosper won the Cesarewitch Handicap. He came back off a 20lb higher mark two years later and repeated the feat. Today Alphonse Le Grande looks to regain his title, and in the rest of this article, I’ll explain why I think he can.

Alphonse Le Grande has strong course and distance form

As touched upon already, Alphonse Le Grande won the 2024 renewal of the Cesarewitch Handicap. He came back to try again last year, but off a 6lb higher mark he only finished eighth. That said, it was a very respectable performance.

He also has strong form in other Stayers’ Handicaps, including a win and a fifth place in the Northumberland Vase. He also came fifth in the Stayers’ Handicap at York, and he was only beaten by three lengths in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot last year. As such, he is well and truly proven over longer distances and big field Handicaps.

Alphonse Le Grande is back down to his last winning mark

The main difference between Alphonse Le Grande and Aaim To Prosper comes down to their handicap marks. When Aaim To Prosper came back in 2012, the year he regained his Cesarewitch crown, he was rated 20lb higher.

Alphonse Le Grande has a much easier task on paper. Despite being raised 6lb, from 87 to 93, for winning this race in 2024, his handicap mark has now dropped down to his previous winning mark of 87. I’d say this is very much by design. It’s highly likely that trainer Tony Martin has been planning another crack at this race for quite some time.

Alphonse Le Grande has a fantastic low racing weight

When he won this race in 2024, Alphonse Le Grande had apprentice jockey Jamie Powell in the saddle. That almost certainly made the difference between winning and losing. The winning margin that day was just a nose, so Jamie’s 3lb claim was clearly valuable.

Once again, Tony Martin has booked an apprentice for the ride, and this time it’s Patrick McGettigan. I believe this is his first ride for Tony's yard, and he is able to claim 5lb. Alphonse Le Grande was originally down to carry 8st 11lb, but Patrick’s claim brings his weight down to just 8st 6lb, which could make all the difference once again. In the last ten renewals of the Cesarewitch, seven of the ten winners carried between 8st 3lb and 8st 13lb, with just one winner carrying more than 9st 2lb.

Patrick McGettigan comes here with three wins recorded in the last fortnight, at odds of 8/1, 22/1 and 50/1. The last of those being at Dundalk yesterday afternoon. I can only imagine that his confidence is high, and hopefully he can make the most of this fantastic opportunity.

Can Alphonse Le Grande regain the Cesarewitch Handicap?

I think Alphonse Le Grande ticks a lot of boxes in the Cesarewitch Handicap. He has strong course and distance form, and he won the 2024 renewal. He has produced RPRs of 94 and 95 at this course, and if he can repeat that level of performance today, it gives him every chance. He also has strong form in Stayers’ Handicaps elsewhere too. Combine that with the fact that he is back down to his last winning mark, and has a low weight to carry, you can build a strong case for Alphonse Le Grande.

In terms of negatives, he hasn’t managed to get his head in front since he won the 2024 renewal of this race, so he needs to prove he still has the desire to win. Furthermore, while giving an apprentice the ride has advantages, it’s also a risk because you are relying on a less experienced jockey who is more likely to make mistakes. It’s also a fairly quick turnaround from the Irish Cesarewitch, which was run on Heavy going, so he needs to prove he has fully recovered from that. Finally, this is a huge 29-runner field, and irrespective of ability and handicap marks, luck in running is required as well.

Considering all of the positives and negatives raised here, I think Alphonse Le Grande is a great each way bet at 20/1, especially with six places available. I’m very confident he’ll run a big race, and finish in the first six, but hopefully he can do even better. However, given the complexity of this Handicap, I’m only willing to play half stakes today.

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