
It’s Saturday, so this is my last free horse racing tip for this week. The horse I've selected runs in the Betfred Park Stakes at Doncaster, and I feel he is underestimated at 12/1 and will easily outperform those odds.
As you read this, my Lucky 15 for today’s ITV Racing action across Chester and Doncaster will already be live. Likewise, my YouTube video on the Betting.co.uk channel, where I dive into the Portland Handicap, and the St Leger Stakes, which are both running at Doncaster today. Make sure you check both of those out after reading this article!
At the time of writing, many bookmakers are offering the best horse racing odds of 12/1. Therefore, I wanted to recommend one a little less known for you. This time it’s LiveScore Bet and they have a fantastic new customer offer available. If you bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets, which is excellent value.
Charlie Appleby and Godolphin have supplemented Wise Approach for the Betfred Park Stakes at Doncaster today at a cost of £8,250. To make that decision worthwhile in terms of prize money, he would need to finish in the first four. I think he can do better than just picking up place money, and in the rest of this article, I’ll explain.
Today’s betting tip, Wise Approach, won the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes last year as a two-year-old. His pedigree hinted that he could stay a mile and could be a 2,000 Guineas type. The main angle being that his dam was a 1m 2f winner on Turf, out of a 1m 1f/1m 2f winner related to Arc winner Sagamix. I think this step up to 7f today could be exactly what he wants.
In a couple of his recent runs Wise Approach has shaped like a horse that would appreciate a step up in trip. Most recently, he was beaten by 3.5 lengths in the Prix Group 1 Maurice de Gheest over in Deauville. He raced in the rear of the field that day, a tactic unsuited to the steady gallop the race was run at. But despite that, he kept on at the finish.
Wise Approach wears cheekpieces for the first time today. With Charlie Appleby’s exceptional success in this regard, when you see cheekpieces mentioned, it’s worth paying attention. In the last two years, he has a record of 6/24 (25%) wins, with 16/24 (75%) finishing in the places when applying cheekpieces for the first time. To a £1 level stake at SP, he is +£24.25 in this scenario with a BSP profit of +£41.35!
Last season, Wise Approach went to Deauville in August, before winning in September on home soil. Hopefully he will repeat the scenario and win for us today. As mentioned, the sedate gallop didn’t suit him in Deauville last time, but the pace looks stronger here. As a hold up type, the strong gallop should give him the perfect set up to shine today.
With retained jockey William Buick over in Woodbine, Canada, Charlie Appleby needed to bring in a replacement. He has decided on Billy Loughnane, who boasts a very strong record for Charlie this year. He is 14/39 (36%) with 28/39 (72%) finishing in the first three. If you stretch the statistics out to all time, they get stronger, with 38/87 (44%) wins, and 67/87% (77%) finishing in the first three. Charlie also has his horses in fine form, with a strike rate of 33% (6/18) in the last fortnight.
I also find it interesting that three-year-olds have a strong record in this race. They receive 4lb from the older horses here, and carry just 9st 2lb. Diving back through the data, 20 of the 48 (42%) renewals of this race have been won by three-year-olds and that includes last year’s winner, Marvelman.
Charlie Appleby is giving Wise Approach every chance of reviving his two-year-old form here. Wise Approach steps up in trip, which I think he’ll relish, he wears cheekpieces for the first time, which is clearly a winning formula for Charlie, and Billy Loughnane takes the ride. Tactically, I think the set up of this race will be far more suitable than his last one in France, and Doncaster should suit his style too. When you consider the record that three-year-olds have in this race, and the fact they have supplemented him to be here, there are plenty of positives.
In terms of negatives, his three-year-old form this season hasn’t been up to the same standard as last year. There is a chance he simply hasn’t trained on and he won’t go on to fulfill his potential. I also believe he is at his very best on fast ground, and as a result, he could find the Good, Good to Soft in places on the slow side. I just hope it continues to dry out for him, and the ground isn’t tacky if it does!
Although there are a couple of questions to answer, I think you can make a strong case for Wise Approach today. When you combine that with the 12/1 available, I think he is worth an each way bet, but I have trimmed the stake down to 0.75pts each way for this one.
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