Key Points
- Today’s betting tip has red hot form in the book
- He is dangerously handicapped off this current mark
- The jockey’s record for the trainer is incredibly impressive
What a winner we enjoyed yesterday! I tipped Eye Of Dubai at 14/1 for the Ayr Bronze Cup, and he was backed into 15/2 before coming home in front. As expected, he bounced back to form with the combination of first time blinkers and the softer ground conditions. Our 2pt outlay (1pt each way) returned an incredible 18.8pts!
In terms of the
free horse racing tips
for this week, I have another one for you today! This one comes from Newbury and it is currently available at 11/1. I also have a Lucky 15 for Saturday’s ITV Racing action across both Ayr and Newbury, which is already live. In the meantime, you can check out
my YouTube video
on the Betting.co.uk channel, where I've highlighted four horses for the Ayr Silver Cup and Ayr Gold Cup at odds of 33/1, 33/1, 22/1 and 50/1.
Betting advice
- 14:47 Newbury -
Mr Swivell
@ 11/1 (4 places) -
0.75pt
each way
£40 in free bets from Betway!
The
best horse racing odds
for Mr Swivell of 11/1 are widely available across the market, so today’s bookmaker pick is based on the best sign up offer instead. On that front, Betway excels, if you
bet £10, you’ll get £40 in free bets. It’s well worth checking out.
It’s time for Mr Swivell to shine!
Mr Swivell has been running well in defeat and in races that have worked out very well. It’s now time for him to step up and get his head in front and I think he can do exactly that today. At odds of 11/1, he looks underestimated to me and in the rest of this article, I’ll explain why.
Today’s betting tip - Mr Swivell bumped into a group horse in a handicap three starts back at York when denied by the Andrew Balding-trained The Lost King. The Lost King has since franked that form by winning a very valuable handicap back at York during the Ebor Festival. He then further franked the form by finishing second in Group 3 company at Haydock in the Superior Mile Stakes. The Lost King was rated 96 when Mr Swivell faced, he’s now rated 109 (13lb higher).
We then have Mr Swivell’s latest run at York too. He stepped up to 1m 2.5f for the first time and finished seventh, beaten just 4.25 lengths. I rated that race very highly and it is form we know well. The winner, Raammee, was a group horse in a Handicap as predicted in my
Five Horses To Follow for July 2026
article. The second (Thunder Run), third (Bourbon Blues) and fourth (Shafdar) all went on to win next time out. You may recall that I tipped
Bourbon Blues at Doncaster
last week and he won.
Mr Swivell is dangerously handicapped off this current mark
At the start of this campaign, Mr Swivell was rated 95 by the handicapper. However, after three runs, he had fallen 5lb down to 90. It was off that mark that he chased home The Lost King at York, as already covered. He went back up to 93 briefly, before racing last time out off 92. Given the quality of that last run, a 2lb drop to 90 looks lenient to me.
Having previously finished second off marks of 93 and 90, as well as winning a valuable Racing League Handicap off a 3lb lower mark of 87, I think Mr Swivell is dangerously handicapped here. He carries just 8st 13lb in this 0-105 Handicap, which is a lovely racing weight.
The jockey’s record for the trainer is incredibly impressive
The final point that catches my eye is the trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy has booked William Buick to ride. With William riding, Kevin has a record of 8/19 (42%), with 15/19 (79%) finishing in the first four home. To a £1 level stake at SP, that's a significant profit of +£24.92.
If you narrow the statistics down to the last five years only, the figures only improve. During this smaller time period, Buick is 7/13 (54%) for Kevin, with 11/13 (85%) finishing in the first four. In plain terms, when William Buick rides for Kevin, it is statistically more likely for him to win than not, which is quite crazy! Especially so when over the same time period, Kevin has operated at a strike rate of just 13% across all of his runners.
Can Mr Swivell go from bridesmaid to bride?
I think Mr Swivell has been unfortunate to keep bumping into fantastic horses but he has been running very well in defeat and the form is working out exceptionally well. I think he is dangerous off his current mark of 90, which is 5lb below his opening mark for this campaign, despite some fantastic runs being produced. When you then throw in the booking of William Buick, considering his record for the trainer, there is an awful lot to like here.
In terms of negatives for Mr Swivell, he is now without a win since July last year, so he does need to put that right. It was also a very disappointing effort on his penultimate start, when finishing eighth at Thirsk. That said, there was an obvious excuse that day as he raced far too keenly and ruined his own chance.
All aspects taken into account, I think he is underestimated here at a double figure price of 11/1 and with four places on offer, he looks to be a fantastic each way bet here. Given the negatives and the fact he has to prove he is up to winning off a mark of 90, I have trimmed the stake down slightly to 0.75pt each way.
Take a look at the latest free bet offers!
Before you head off to place today’s bet on Mr Swivell, be sure to have a look at these
five betting offers for horse racing
that are currently available for you. There’s some fantastic value up for grabs here.
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