Key Points
- Today’s betting tip could still be a Group horse in a Handicap
- His winning jockey from last time out retains the ride
- A 4lb penalty may not stop this progressive type
Long term followers of my
free horse racing tips
here at Betting.co.uk will know that I already have a play in the Cambridgeshire Handicap. A month ago today I put up
Erzindjan
for the race at 33/1 and he is now second favourite! Today I’m strengthening our hand with a second selection at 11/1.
For those not familiar, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert here at Betting.co.uk. Within my role I produce several articles a week which are a mixture of both tipping and non-tipping content. On the tipping side, its daily selections, antepost bets and a Lucky 15 each Saturday. Away from tipping I produce both horses and trainers to follow, educational guides and big race trends.
If you want more content today, there is
last night’s YouTube video
on the Betting.co.uk channel covering the first five races at Newmarket today and a
Lucky 15
for the ITV Racing action at Newmarket and Haydock, which is also live now!
Betting advice
- 15:40 Newmarket -
Bourbon Blues
@ 11/1 (6 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Bourbon Blues can go back to back!
Regular readers of my articles here at Betting.co.uk will know that I tipped
Bourbon Blues to win at Doncaster
a couple of weeks back and he obliged at 7/1. Further to the reasons supplied in that article, I’ll break down why I think he can win again for us today.
Bourbon Blues could still be a Group horse in a Handicap
When I tipped Bourbon Blues ahead of his Doncaster run, I felt he could be a Group horse in a Handicap, and the fact that he won furthers that view in my mind. Ryan Moore held him up in last that day, and despite taking a keen hold, he went past all of his rivals to lead towards the finish and win.
His trainer had initially planned to skip the race and head straight to the Cambridgeshire today, but it was too good of an opportunity to pass up. After the race, both trainer and jockey were in agreement that today’s race would be a good spot for him.
Ryan Moore retains the ride on Bourbon Blues
Ryan Moore’s fantastic record for Brian Meehan was one of the factors for backing Bourbon Blues at Doncaster, and that was compounded when he won for Brian again.
Ryan Moore has been retained today, which is a huge plus. Firstly because of his ability in the saddle, as he showed by winning last time, but also because he clearly has confidence in the horse. Ultimately, Ryan Moore could have ridden almost any horse in this race if he had wanted to, but he has decided to partner with Bourbon Blues again.
A 4lb penalty may not stop this progressive type
Bourbon Blues was awarded a RPR of 111, for his Doncaster performance, which felt about right to me. However, the handicapper only raised him 3lb, from 101 to 104 for the win, which seems very lenient.
Rather than his official mark of 104, Bourbon Blues runs here under a 4lb penalty, as per the race conditions. That means he is effectively 1lb wrong at the weights, and technically racing off 105. However, that doesn’t concern me, as I feel that mark still underestimates his ability, and he could continue to stay ahead of his mark with further progression.
Can Bourbon Blues land the Cambridgeshire?
Whilst I’m still sweet on Erzindjan, who I tipped antepost, I think Bourbon Blues has a huge chance in this year’s Cambridgeshire too. I still feel he could be a Group horse in a Handicap, and if I’m right he could land this valuable Handicap on his way to pattern races. The fact that Ryan Moore retains the ride is a huge positive for more than one reason, and with a central draw in stall 13, Ryan will have plenty of options too. Bourbon Blues will carry a 4lb penalty, but I‘m fairly certain that won’t stop him here.
In terms of negatives, this is quite a sharp turnaround as he only raced at Doncaster 16 days ago. He may have had a stronger chance coming here off a mark of 101 with no penalty, but the Doncaster opportunity was too good to pass up, and he could well win both. With the size and nature of this race, luck in running is needed to win it, especially if he is held up again.
After analysing the positives and negatives, I’m happy going to war with Erzindjan at 33/1, but I want to have Bourbon Blues on our side in the Cambridgeshire too. However, given the negatives raised for the latter, I have trimmed the stake down slightly to 0.75pt each way.
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