Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is handicapped to win
- He had excuses for his last two runs
- The cheekpieces worn for his last two wins are back today
I’ve found a promising selection at a double figure price who runs in the The 1m 4f Handicap at Goodwood, which is worth £45,000. This horse looks ready to win to me based on his performances and his handicap mark. With excuses for his last couple of runs, which have seen his mark fall, he is more than capable of winning today’s race.
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Betting advice
- 14:35 Goodwood -
Oneforthegutter
@ 12/1 (3 places) -
0.75pt Each Way
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A change in tactics can see Oneforthegutter return to winning ways!
As the old saying goes,
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results”.
On that basis it’s good to see Ian Williams switching things up today. In the rest of the article, I’ll explain what I mean by this, and why I think it could work.
Oneforthegutter is handicapped to win
During his career Oneforthegutter has produced three Handicap wins off marks of 85, 87 and 92. With his mark back down to 86, he is handicapped to strike again. Kieran O’Neill has only had one previous ride on Oneforthegutter, which resulted in a win. Trainer Ian Williams has booked him to ride again today, so that’s another positive.
In the last five years Kieran O’Neill has ridden 12 winners from 84 rides for Ian, producing a strike rate of 14%. With a further 22 finishing second, third or fourth, he has had over 40% finish in the first four. For context, Ian is operating at a 10% strike rate overall in the same period, so his horses improve when Kieran is on board. If you backed all of Ian’s horses ridden by Kieran O’Neill over the last five years to £1 level stakes, you would have a small profit of +£1.88.
Oneforthegutter had excuses for the last two runs
After winning the Betway Trophy in 2025, Oneforthegutter lined up again for this year’s renewal. Despite travelling extremely well through the race, he was repeatedly denied a clear run down the near side rail. He certainly ran far better than the official finishing position of 8/10 suggests.
Last time out, Oneforthegutter was stepped up to 2m for the Shergar Stayers’ Cup at Ascot. Just like his previous attempt over 2m, he didn’t stay, so I’d ignore that performance too. Ironically his stablemate, Dancing In Paris, went on to win the race, so Ian Williams still scooped the valuable prize.
Will the returning cheekpieces be a deciding factor?
The last two times Oneforthegutter won, he was wearing cheekpieces. They were also worn for his last couple of second places. Interestingly, in his final run last year and his four runs this year, there has been no sign of them. However, a tongue tie was applied last time out.
Today, the tongue tie is retained and the cheekpieces return. Considering that he is dropping back to 1m 4f, and there are no obvious pace angles in the race, I wonder if he’ll be ridden more prominently or even aggressively today? If he can get an easy lead in front, then using more positive tactics could work beautifully.
Can Oneforthegutter return to winning ways?
Oneforthegutter is handicapped to win, he’s had excuses, Kieran O’Neill is booked to ride, and the cheekpieces worn for his last two wins are back in place. In terms of negatives, the 1m 4f trip has previously looked on the sharp side for Oneforthegutter, and I feel that 1m 6f may actually be his optimum trip. Another concern is his strike rate, which is just 4/41, which is surprising for a horse of his ability.
At 12/1, I feel Oneforthegutter is worth backing, but given the risks I’m trimming the stake down to 0.75pt each way. If he doesn’t win today, I’m confident he will pick up a race before the season is finished. This could be something like the Old Borough Cup Handicap at Haydock or the November Handicap at Doncaster.
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