
We head to Ascot on Saturday for the next instalment of my free horse racing tips here at Betting.co.uk, and today's selection runs in the Challenge Cup. We have a maximum field size of 18 lining up and this should be an absolute cracker! Even better, he is priced at 20/1 and clearly flying under the radar. He should easily outrun those odds and I believe he can win it.
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As I type this article, William Hill is offering the best horse racing odds for Great Acclaim with a price of 20/1. The value doesn’t end there though, as they are also paying five places rather than the traditional four for a 16+ runner handicap. Last but not least, they have a superb welcome offer for new customers If you bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets. If you don’t already have an account, then consider opening one.
To win one of these big Handicaps, a horse either needs to be extremely well handicapped, or everything needs to fall right. It can be extremely frustrating when a horse that does its best every time, but consistently has no luck in running, and Great Acclaim falls into that category this season. I think he can put that right here and in the rest of the article, I’ll be breaking down why.
If you limit Great Acclaim’s form to today’s course and distance, it reads as follows: -
As you can see, in all five runs, he has been beaten by less than four lengths and produced RPRs of 102 to 108 off marks varying between 97-102. He races off 99 here and with a repeat performance, he must have every chance.
As a general rule at Ascot and from what we saw during yesterday’s racing, the stands side is the place to be in these big field handicaps over these sort of trips. The higher the draw, the closer you are to the stands side rail and I think today’s draw of 14/18 for Great Acclaim looks to be a fantastic one.
You would think that the rail draw (18/18) would be best but if they all converge across to the rail, you can get buried alive down there. All too often you see horses all dressed up with nowhere to go. At least from four off the rail, you have the advantage of racing the right side but you also have more options as you look to make your challenge.
As touched upon a couple of sections ago, we already know that Great Acclaim has been very competitive in C&D handicaps off marks ranging from 2lb lower than today’s mark to 4lb higher. However, whilst he has been banging on the door, he is yet to get through it.
Today Eve Johnson-Houghton makes a brave call to book Oliver Carmichael for the ride. He is the stable’s apprentice and he currently claims 7lb. As a result, Great Acclaim will effectively be racing off 92 here and subsequently carries 8st 13lb rather than the allocated 9st 6lb. That could make a big difference but there are risks attached with bringing in a less experienced rider too.
Great Acclaim has a lot in his favour in today’s Challenge Cup at Ascot. As laid out, he has a very strong C&D record, which has to be greatly respected. We know from that form that he can be competitive off this kind of mark, so there is every reason he should be involved at the finish. When you combine that with the high draw and the 7lb taken off his back by today’s apprentice jockey - Oliver Carmichael, his case looks very strong.
On the negative side, he is regularly the bridesmaid rather than the bride, so the fear is that he will play that role once more. Given he can often be dropped in, he is also a hostage to fortune, like many in these big handicaps. As touched upon, there are also risks attached with an inexperienced rider in the saddle, hence the allowance they are given. It doesn’t matter how good the horse is if the jockey gets it badly wrong.
After weighing up the positives and the negatives, I think Great Acclaim is completely overpriced at odds of 20/1. Whilst he does need to prove he can escape the handicapper’s grip and the apprentice jockey needs to prove himself in the saddle, he has a far better chance than those odds suggest. Therefore, despite these negatives, he warrants a strong 1pt Each Way bet in my eyes at the price.
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