Key Points
- Today’s betting tip was repeatedly denied a clear run last time
- A 1lb handicap rise could underestimate his ability
- His jockey has an exceptional record for this trainer
Yesterday our stake was returned when Epidavros was declared a non-runner. As highlighted and feared, the ground dried up, and connections decided to save her for another day when there is more cut in the ground.
Although we didn’t have a runner yesterday, my
free horse racing tips
keep coming, and today we head to Doncaster where I’ve found a lively candidate priced at 9/2! Although those odds are not as sexy as yesterday’s 25/1 shot, I think this horse has a great chance of winning today!
And while I have your attention don’t forget to check out my antepost pick for the
Cambridgeshire at Newmarket, which takes place at the end of this month. Although the original odds have shortened considerably since my article went live, this horse is definitely still worth backing.
Betting advice
- 14:25 Doncaster -
Bourbon Blues
@ 9/2 (4 places) -
1pt each way
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The drinks could be on Bourbon Blues tonight!
What’s better than Bourbon and Blues? Backing a winner! Today you could combine all three by backing Bourbon Blues to win and I think he can do exactly that. In this article, I’ll break down the reasons I chose him today.
Bourbon Blues was repeatedly denied a clear run last time
While Bourbon Blues didn’t have the kindest of runs on his penultimate start at Glorious Goodwood, it felt another level of misfortune at the York Ebor Festival last time out. He stalked the leaders, and looked like a real threat, but each time a gap opened and he ventured towards it, it shut in his face.
In stark contrast, the eventual winner Raammee and the second-placed Thunder Run both had a much easier run through the race. In every sectional from 6f out to 1f out, Bourbon Blues outperformed the front pair on times, and it was a near-identical final furlong time for the three of them. With better positioning, I feel Bourbon Blues would have had every chance.
The 1lb rise could underestimate Bourbon Blues ability level
I thought the York race was a cracker, but the handicapper didn’t hit the prominent finishers as hard as I would have expected. Raammee was raised just 4lb from 103 to 107. While Thunder Run was raised just 3lb from 101 to 104. Back in third place, Bourbon Blues was raised just 1lb from 100 to 101.
Personally, I’d have viewed the race more in line with the RPRs awarded, with the 1-2-3 given RPRs of 113, 110 and 107. Even then, I’d argue that Bourbon Blues could be upgraded, given the trouble he suffered in running. That’s why I believe that his revised mark of 101 underestimates him, and he could be the classic “Group horse in a handicap” here.
Ryan Moore has an exceptional record when riding for Brain Meehan
Another noteworthy factor is that Brian Meehan has booked Ryan Moore to ride. Ryan is arguably the best jockey in the world right now, and he has been for some time in my eyes.
Not only does Ryan have an excellent record generally, he has an especially good one when riding for Brian Meehan. Ryan has clocked up 28/127 (22%) winners, with 64/127 (50%) finishing in the first four. To a ÂŁ1 level stake, Ryan Moore is +ÂŁ44.42 when riding for Brian. Ryan has only ridden for Brian once this year, and that resulted in a win.
Can Ryan Moore guide Bourbon Blues to victory?
Bourbon Blues deserves a change of luck and I believe he can win here if he gets it. He was repeatedly denied a clear run last time out, and has been pretty luckless in previous races too. With just a 1lb rise from the handicapper, he’s been gifted another chance at a Handicap victory and I’m hoping he can take it before heading into pattern races. You couldn’t ask for a better jockey in the saddle than Ryan Moore and his record when riding for Brian Meehan is exceptional.
In terms of negatives, a handicap mark of 101 is a hefty one to overcome for a three-year-old, so he will need to be a Group horse in a handicap to achieve that feat. Although he had excuses, he is 0/6 in his three-year-old campaign and the longer that goes on, the more the nerves and concern will grow. I’d also prefer he wasn’t drawn as wide as stall nine, but he is often dropped into the pack, so it’s not a major concern.
All in all, I still have very high hopes for Bourbon Blues today. A 9/2 shot backed each way won’t be for everyone, but with four places being paid, I think he’s a great each way bet. If he can get his head in front, it’s a lovely win. If he’s second, third or fourth, we get 95% of our stake back, and I will be very disappointed if he doesn’t finish in the first four.
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