Key Points
- Today’s betting tip has a fantastic record when fresh
- Her trainer has won the last two renewals of this race
- This mare is handicapped to strike on her best form
Yesterday’s betting tip was a profitable one, as Thunderous Love ran a cracking race to finish in the places. With an SP of 9/1, the advised bet returned 2.8pts.
Today’s
free horse racing tip
takes us to Ayr, for Day 1 of the three-day Gold Cup Festival there. Hopefully we can kick this great meeting off with a winner!
On the topic of betting tips, be sure to check out my antepost selection for the
2027 Grand National at Aintree. This horse is available at 66/1 and I think he has a far better chance than his huge odds suggest. It’s definitely worth taking the early price!
Betting advice
- 17:01 Ayr -
Azahara Palace
@ 18/1 (4 places) -
0.75pt each way
bet365 offers superb value as always!
You won’t be surprised to learn that once again the
best horse racing odds
of 18/1 for Azahara Palace to win are available at bet365, with four places. A considerable advantage when you consider that most bookies have her priced between 11/1 and 14/1 at best, with just the standard three places being paid. They say all good things come in threes, and bet365’s sign up offer is the icing on the cake. If you sign up and
bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets. Truly unbeatable all-round value!
This mare is going under the radar at 18/1
I’m quite shocked that Azahara Palace is priced at 18/1. I think she has a far greater chance of winning than her odds suggest, and in this article I’ll explain my reasoning.
Azahara Palace has a fantastic record when fresh
Azahara Palace has been off the track since the middle of May. After roughly four months, you might expect her to need the run, but I don’t think that will be the case, so don’t let it put you off.
Looking back through Azahara Palace's form, her figures when returning from a break read 13122. Coming here fresh, I’m very interested in her, as she clearly thrives first time out, so what better time to catch her.
Her trainer has won the last two renewals of this race
From the start of her career in May 2023 until October 2025, Azahara Palace was trained by Hughie Morrison in the Berkshire countryside. But in October, she was put into the Tattersalls Autumn Horses In Training sale. She was purchased by Adrian Keatley, and moved to his stables in Ryedale, North Yorkshire.
Whilst the change of trainer itself doesn’t mean much, Adrian Keatley’s record in this particular race does, as has won the last two renewals. He won the race in 2024 with the very talented and now sadly deceased Kihavah. Then in 2025, he won it again with Surrey Belle. Adrian clearly knows what it takes to win this race and he sends Azahara Palace here as he looks to land his third victory.
While her wins have come off marks of 68, 73, 74 and 75, I have seen enough from Azahara Palace to think that she is handicapped to win off her current mark of 82. In early September last year, she was only denied by a neck off a 2lb lower mark of 80, producing a RPR of 88. She followed that up with a seventh in a Class 2 Handicap at Newbury off this mark of 82, when beaten just 2.5 lengths and producing the same RPR of 88 once again.
Next time out she was thrown into Listed company, where she finished ninth, beaten by 7.25 lengths. Perhaps she was flattered by that form but she produced a very strong RPR of 95. To give some context to that form, they all raced off level weights, and the first three to cross the line were rated 105, 100 and 102. In fact every horse that finished ahead of her was rated higher than her with the next five to finish rated at 93, 84, 97, 92 and 88.
If she could replicate the form of her Class 2 Handicap or the Listed race, she would have an excellent chance here off a mark of 82. Those performances also came over 1m 5.5f and 1m 6f on Good to Soft going, so today’s conditions of 1m 5f on Good to Soft ground should be right up her street.
Will Azahara Palace make it three in a row for Adrian Keatley?
Azahara Palace must be respected given that she has an excellent record when fresh. The fact that her trainer has entered her for a race that he has already won twice is also eye-catching. In addition, Azahara Palace should love the track, trip, and going as well as being competitively-handicapped, so there is a lot to like.
In terms of negatives, she hasn’t won since July 2025, we are gambling on her race fitness after a break, and she is now 7lb above her last winning mark. Taking all facts into account, I think she is worth backing at 18/1 with four places, but given the negatives, I have trimmed the stake down to 0.75pt each way.
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