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Horse Racing Betting Tips - Wednesday 21 October 2026 - Kempton

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Publish Date: 21/10/2026

Fact checked by: Jordan Noble

Key Points

Today’s betting tip is very well handicapped
His trainer has won two of the last three renewals
Today’s jockey booking is hugely eye-catching

For my first betting tip of the week, we head to Kempton for the 2m Handicap which is a London Stayers’ Series Qualifier. We have a competitive field of 14 runners going to post but I think I have found a contender that is underestimated and overpriced at double figure odds.

If you’re new to my content here, I’m RacingGav and I publish free horse racing tips several times each week. The tipping is across a variety of areas such as daily betting tips (like this one), antepost selections and a Lucky 15 each Saturday, across the ITV Racing action.

Speaking of antepost selections, be sure to check out my early bet for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the 2027 Cheltenham Festival. He is currently available at an unbelievable price of 66/1 and he makes his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham on Saturday, which could affect the odds so lock them in!

Betting advice

19:00 Kempton - Real Dream - @ 11/1 (4 places) - 1pt each way

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Real Dream can outrun his double figure odds!

I think Real Dream has an exceptional chance of outperforming his current odds of 11/1. In the remainder of this article, I’ll break down my reasons for advising him as a betting tip today.

Real Dream is very well handicapped

It is hard not to be drawn to Real Dream on his current handicap mark of 92. His latest win came off a 1lb lower mark of 91 and he won readily that day by over four lengths, producing a very strong RPR of 104.

Away from the winning form, he also has place form off significantly higher marks. He was second at Newmarket off a 7lb higher mark of 99, third at Newmarket and here at Kempton off marks of 100 and 102 respectively, and third in Listed company at Sandown, where he was beaten just half a length. With a peak RPR of 111, he is extremely well handicapped off a mark of 91 if he puts his best foot forward.

Real Dream’s trainer has won two of the last three renewals

The switch to the All Weather here is eye-catching too, especially as Real Dream’s trainer - Ian Williams has won two of the last three renewals of this race. In 2023, Ian won the race with a horse called C’Mon Kenny and then he regained the race in 2025 with Sheradann. It is also worth noting that in the interim renewal (2024), he did not have a runner, so he couldn’t win it!

If we look at Real Dream’s form too, he has had just four starts on the All Weather with one win and one place recorded. Interestingly both the win and the place came here at Kempton, which bodes well. Those two performances came over 1m 3f and 1m 4f too, so he is completely unexposed over staying trips on the All Weather. On his performances to date and the stride data available, I think he could relish this 2m trip.

Today’s jockey booking is hugely eye-catching

I feel the jockey booking of Rossa Ryan is significant too. That is not a routine booking for Ian Williams and therefore it caught my eye immediately. To put some numbers to it, in the current year, Rossa has a record of 3/6 (50%) for Ian. To £1 level stakes, he is +£13.75. That is no anomaly either, as if you look at the previous five years, he is 9/24 (38%) for Ian with 14/24 (58%) finishing in the first three. To £1 level stakes over the longer period, he is +£28.25.

Furthermore on the topic of Rossa Ryan, he is riding exceptionally well at Kempton this season. Of the jockeys with a ride at this meeting, he has the third most wins - 20. He also has a healthy strike rate of 21.7% and a £1 level stakes profit of +£6.08. Only Oisin Murphy has a stronger strike rate this season if you rule out Owen Lewis and Toby Moore who have a very small sample size.

Can Real Dream return to winning ways?

As you can see, there is a lot in Real Dream’s favour today. He is very well handicapped on his best form, and his trainer has won two of the last three renewals. He also has a strong pace to aim at here, unlike his last race which wasn’t run to suit. Rossa Ryan is a very strong jockey booking, with an excellent record for the trainer and at the course. Frankly, I don’t believe Ian Williams would book Rossa Ryan unless he felt that Real Dream had a strong chance.

In terms of negatives, Real Dream is winless since July 2023 and has a career strike rate of just 3/26. In his nine runs this campaign, he is yet to finish in the first three, but that said, he was beaten by less than a length in Group 2 company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia back in February. He has also run other promising races in defeat this season.

After considering all of the factors, good and bad, I think he is underestimated and overpriced here at odds of 11/1. This could backfire on me but with so much in his favour today, I feel he is worth a strong 1pt each way bet.

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