Key Points
- Today’s betting tip loves it here at Goodwood
- This horse is weighted to reverse the form with his main rival
- He ran a promising race last time despite unfavourable conditions
I usually publish an article on Tuesdays, but nothing caught my eye yesterday, so I decided to keep our powder dry. As such, the first of this week’s
free horse racing tips
runs at Goodwood today, where I have found a likely candidate at 5/2.
If you’re new to my content I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert here at Betting.co.uk. I provide a wide range of content here, with a mixture of tipping and non-tipping articles. In terms of tips, you’ll find daily and antepost selections, then on Saturdays I put up a Lucky 15.
Circling back to antepost betting tips, my next selection runs in the
Cambridgeshire at Newmarket
on Saturday. I advised him at 33/1 back in August, and he is less than half of that at 14/1. If you haven’t read the article already, be sure to take a look ahead of the race on the weekend!
Betting advice
- 15:15 Goodwood -
Naqeeb
@ 5/2 -
1pt win
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Naqeeb can successfully defend his crown!
Last year, Naqeeb won this exact race for his connections. He comes back today chasing back to back renewals, and I think he has every chance of achieving that. In this article, I’ll explain my logic,
Naqeeb loves it here at Goodwood
As the old saying goes, horses for courses, and this horse loves Goodwood. Naqeeb has form figures here of 2125, producing RPRs of 111, 113, 113 and 100. He won this race last year, in what was arguably a stronger looking renewal than this one.
Naqeeb also has excuses for his last run here. His three previous runs were over 1m 2f on Good or Good to Soft going. However, that latest race was over 1m and on Soft going, so the conditions didn’t see him at his best. It’s also worth noting that it was a Group 2 race, when his three earlier runs were in Handicap or Listed company. Today he is back up to 1m 2f, on better ground, and at Listed level, so I think he can bounce back to his best.
Naqeeb is weighted to reverse the form with his main rival
Back in May the two market principals here: Boiling Point and Naqeeb, battled it out in the Fitzdares Festival Stakes (Listed) with Boiling Point coming home a short head in front. Notably, Boiling Point carried 9st 3lb that day, whereas Naqeeb carried 9st 6lb.
In today’s race, the tables have turned in terms of the weights, with Boiling Point set to carry 9st 7lb, and Naqeeb just 9st 4lb. With a 6lb swing at the weights for a short head defeat, I think Naqeeb can reverse that form.
Naqeeb ran a promising race last time despite conditions being against him
I also think Naqeeb’s run in the Celebration Stakes can be upgraded. He was racing over 1m instead of 1m 2f, on softer ground than usual, neither of which suited him. That was a hot Group 2 race, and the horses who placed first and second: Zavateri and Qirat, were both Group 1 winners.
In addition, Naqeeb was denied a clear run that day, and given one he may well have finished closer. If you look at the form, you will also see that Boiling Point finished three lengths behind Naqeeb in that race, which was off level weights. Neither were seen at their best in those conditions, but it only further enhances the case for Naqeeb beating him this time.
Can Naqeeb enhance his fantastic Goodwood record?
I think there is an awful lot to like about Naqeeb in this Listed Race. He loves it here at Goodwood, which is a huge factor, and he is weighted to reverse the form with Boiling Point. Given his preferred 1m 2f and better ground, I think we’ll see a vastly improved performance this time. This is also a significantly weaker race than the Group 2 Celebration Stakes he competed in last time out.
Naqeeb does need to bounce back, but with all factors taken into account, I think he has a stronger chance of winning this Listed Race than his 5/2 odds suggest. On that basis alone I think he is worth a solid 1pt Win bet today.
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