Manchester City – Manchester United
Tip:
City over 5 corners, United under 5 corners
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Neither side is in terrific form heading into Sunday’s Manchester derby, though United did earn an important Europa League win over Viktoria Plzen on Thursday night, making it two successes in two matches for new boss Ruben Amorim in that competition.
City Toiling on All Fronts
There was more midweek misery for Manchester City in Europe on Wednesday as they lost 2-0 to Juventus, leaving themselves in 22nd place and staring a playoff tie in the face at best.
Things aren’t any better domestically. The Cityzens’ draw at Crystal Palace allowed Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest to close within two points of the top four. The champions have gone from title favourites to no longer being shoo-ins to qualify for next season’s Champions League.
Rico Lewis, sent off at Selhurst Park, is suspended for the derby, while Nathan Ake, Manuel Akanji, and John Stones could all miss out in defence.
Hojlund to the Rescue
Amorim was at risk of three defeats on the spin as United trailed in Pilsen on Thursday, but the second half introduction of Rasmus Hojlund, who has now scored nine in 12 for the Red Devils in Europe, inspired them to victory.
The Dane may have done enough to start at the Etihad, particularly with Joshua Zirkzee and Marcus Rashford failing to impress last time out.
Following two back-to-back league defeats, United’s domestic campaign is threatening to fade into black before Christmas. They sit 13th in the table and could slip further down if they lose at City on Sunday afternoon.
Maiden Derby Curse
Since Sir Alex Ferguson retired, every new Manchester United manager has lost their first match against City.
David Moyes suffered a heavy defeat on his only trip to the Etihad as the Red Devils boss, losing 4-1 in September 2013.
The following season, Louis van Gaal’s United were beaten 1-0 away at City. Jose Mourinho’s first Manchester derby was at Old Trafford but his side lost 2-1.
Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s first clash with City in the dugout was also at home, but they were well beaten 2-0.
Erik ten Hag’s most significant victory with United came against the Cityzens in the 2024 FA Cup Final, 19 months after losing 6-3 in his first derby.
Tip:
City over 5 corners, United under 5 corners
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There tends to be a winner when these two teams meet, and until recently, United often had the better of their rivals at the Etihad.
It is rare for neither participant in the Manchester derby to be among the top three favourites for the title, but that is the reality of this weekend’s fixture.
Manchester City vs. Manchester United
1
The last score draw between City and United was in September 2005, when they drew 1-1 at Old Trafford.
2
City have won the last three H2Hs at the Etihad after United had triumphed in four of the previous six away from home.
3
Pep Guardiola’s team have conceded three more league goals than United despite sitting nine places higher in the table.
Our Betting Tip for Today
City may be struggling, but they should still pose the greater attacking threat against United. The best bet is for City to have more than five corners, and United to have fewer than five.
Count on City Corners
Manchester City have taken six or more corners in all but one home match this season, with the only exception being against Inter. The Serie A champions restricted the Cityzens to very little, but every other opponent of theirs has had to resist an onslaught from Guardiola’s men.
They only concede two corners per game on average at the Etihad and have not given up more than three in any of their home fixtures.
City won the corner battle against United 6-2 in their Community Shield match in August, and 7-1 in last season’s FA Cup Final. This bet also landed emphatically in their last league encounter, as City racked up 15 corners to United’s two at the Etihad in March.
United have lost the corner count in their last four domestic away trips. This bet would have landed in the two that were against top six sides (3-6 at Aston Villa, 0-13 at Arsenal).
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