Manchester City – Tottenham Hotspur
Tip:
Over: 2.5goals, Kulusevski foul, Gvardiol shot
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The international break came at a good time for Manchester City, who welcome back a handful of key players this weekend. Tottenham Hotspur have a decent record at the Etihad as of late, particularly in the Saturday 5:30pm slot.
Pep Puts Pen to Paper
City fans have had little to celebrate over the last three weeks, but reports of Pep Guardiola’s new one-year contract have lifted the mood.
Having lost four games on the bounce for the first time under the Spaniard, the champions are five points behind Liverpool and can hardly afford to give up further ground.
Kevin De Bruyne, John Stones, Jack Grealish, and Manuel Akanji all took part in training during the week, easing the burden on a much-stretched squad.
Aside from long-term absentees Rodri and Oscar Bobb, Guardiola could have a clean bill of health to choose from if not Saturday, then for next week’s trip to the league leaders.
Tottenham Teetering in Tenth
It would have been a much prettier picture for Spurs heading into the final international break of 2024 had they beaten Ipswich Town at home, but the upset, priced at 10/1, leaves Ange Postecoglou under pressure.
Defeat on Saturday would likely see Tottenham drop into the bottom half - not an ideal position through 12 games given their top-four ambitions.
Like City, Spurs have been without several important players and that remains the case for this weekend. Micky van de Ven is set to miss out, while Rodrigo Bentancur will serve the first of a seven-game domestic ban for making a racial slur.
A Fixture That Rarely Disappoints
There have been countless memorable encounters between these sides at the Etihad since Sheikh Mansour acquired Man City.
From Peter Crouch’s top-four clincher in 2010, to the VAR drama in the Champions League in 2019, and Dejan Kulusevski’s 90th-minute leveller last season, there always seems to be moments of significance when Spurs travel to Eastlands.
Kulusevski’s header in December was his third goal in as many visits to the Etihad as a Spurs player.
City have had famous victories of their own at home to Spurs, including a thrilling 3-2 triumph in 2012 en route to their first Premier League title.
Tip:
Over 2.5 goals, Kulusevski foul, Gvardiol shot
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History suggests that goals and entertainment will be provided, and also that Spurs have a fair chance of getting something from the game.
Tottenham’s away record this season is poor, though, with just one league win in five.
Manchester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur
1
Premier League meetings between City and Spurs at the Etihad have produced more goals than the reverse fixture in seven of the last eight seasons.
2
Tottenham have come away with at least a point in five of their last nine league trips to Manchester City.
3
Three or more goals have been scored in 14 of the last 16 H2Hs at the Etihad.
Our Betting Tip for Today
City and Spurs rank third and fourth respectively for total goals per game in the top flight, so the basis of our bet builder is over 2.5 goals. Add a Kulusevski foul and a Josko Gvardiol shot, and we have an odds-against bet builder.
Clean sheets have been at a premium for both sides this term, and it is unlikely that either of them add to their two shutouts apiece on Saturday.
Bottom club Southampton are the only side that City have kept out at the Etihad in the Premier League, while Spurs’ only win to nil on the road was against 10-man Manchester United.
Recent results and defensive injuries for both points to a goal-fest, and that is exactly what the market expects.
Rather than relying solely on goals and taking the over 3.5 line, it is best to play it safer with over 2.5 and add in two player props which are landing with regularity.
Gvardiol has scored four times since the end of September and provides a genuine attacking threat on the left side of defence. He has registered at least one shot in each of his last six City starts, so let’s back that run to continue.
We can also trust Kulusevski to commit a foul. The Swede has been penalised 21 times in his last 12 appearances for club and country, with a minimum of one foul in each of those matches.
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