Newcastle United – Tottenham Hotspur
Tip:
Romero over 0.5 shots
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Both Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur have started their season with one win and one draw. Spurs in particular seem to have clicked into gear after a commanding 4-0 victory over Everton last week.
Results Flatter Newcastle
Eddie Howe will be delighted to come into this match-up with four points on the board and his side still in the Carabao Cup. All three games could have slipped away from the Magpies, but a combination of excellent character and a little fortune has allowed them to come through this tricky patch.
A resolute backs-against-the-wall display helped them beat Southampton on matchday one after an early Fabian Schar red card. At Bournemouth on Sunday, Howe’s team were perhaps lucky that the Cherries saw what they thought was a stoppage-time winner ruled out for handball.
Newcastle went with a strong lineup in the cup on Wednesday and needed penalties to advance against Nottingham Forest, who had made 10 changes.
Injuries remain an issue, much like last season, but the Toon Army were thrilled to see Sandro Tonali make his return from a 10-month ban in midweek.
Spurs Hit Their Stride
Tottenham’s second-half performance versus Leicester City was deeply disappointing, but their response was emphatic as they thumped Everton.
The injury sustained by club record signing Dominic Solanke at the King Power Stadium was a blow for Ange Postecoglou, but Son Heung-min showed on Saturday that he is still capable of leading the line effectively.
Wilson Odobert has made an instant impact following his arrival from Burnley. The French teenager was superb in the triumph over the Toffees and is likely to be rewarded with another start on Sunday.
Spurs’ two other summer arrivals, Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall, have only appeared off the bench thus far.
Spurs Seek St James’ Park Revenge
Tottenham have been pumped on each of their last two trips to Tyneside. Postecoglou’s first visit there as Spurs manager resulted in a 4-0 defeat in April with Alexander Isak netting twice.
The margin was even wider the previous year when interim boss Cristian Stellini oversaw a 6-1 loss in which Newcastle were 5-0 up within 21 minutes and completed their first league double over Spurs since 2015-16.
Still, Tottenham finished six points better off than the Magpies last term and beat them 4-1 in north London. Oddsmakers make it a 50-50 this weekend, but Spurs are given a slight edge in the top four odds.
Tip:
Romero over 0.5 shots
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Recent encounters between the two sides have been goal-heavy. In fact, they have not played out a goalless draw since 1971 (88 meetings ago).
Newcastle’s home form has been exemplary this year, while Spurs have had their struggles on the road.
Newcastle United vs. Tottenham Hotspur
1
Six of the last seven matches between Newcastle and Tottenham have produced four or more goals.
2
Spurs lost four of their final six away games in 2023-24, with their only victory coming at Sheffield United.
3
Manchester City are the only team to have defeated Newcastle at St James’ Park in 2024.
Our Betting Tip for Today
The market expects goals in this game, which comes as no surprise. There is little value to be had in that department, but the player props offer a way in. The best bet for this fixture is Cristian Romero to register a shot.
Romero to Pose a Threat
By scoring Spurs’ third goal against Everton, Romero made sure of the win and highlighted the Lilywhites' clever use of blockers to consistently free up the Argentine at set pieces.
The defender recorded three shots in the game and that was no fluke. He had one against Leicester and finished last season with 11 shots in his final six appearances.
It is a clear tactic from Tottenham to generate opportunities for Romero from dead-ball situations, and it causes problems for opposition defences.
Without the suspended Schar and the injured Sven Botman, Newcastle’s set-piece defending is a little suspect. They gave up eight corners at Bournemouth and almost lost the game due to one in the dying embers.
BetMGM are offering a generous odds-against price on the Spurs centre-back who would have earned us a return on this punt in seven of his last eight Premier League outings.
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