Tip:
BTTS & Over 2.5 goals
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Both Poland and Austria acquitted themselves well on matchday one, but they each suffered defeats and need a response. Only a win will do for either nation as the chances of picking up points in their final games are much slimmer.
Poles pegged back
The Netherlands were made to work harder than expected for their opening fixture victory. Adam Buksa headed Poland into a 17th-minute lead and even after Cody Gakpo’s equaliser just before the half-hour mark, the Poles continued to create chances and looked good value for what would have been an impressive point.
Wout Weghorst broke Polish hearts seven minutes from time, but manager Michał Probierz remains positive. He said: "We have shown that we can play football very well, we had our own chances.
"I told the players to keep their heads up, to keep the chins up. We can play against any rival and we just need to move on from this match."
Robert Lewandowski is set to return for the make or break clash with Austria.
Austria believers proven right
It was always going to be a tall order for Austria as they kicked off their campaign against France. Still, even in defeat, Das Team’s relentless pressing made life very difficult for Didier Deschamps’ side and they should have gone 1-0 up through Christoph Baumgartner, but goalkeeper Mike Maignan smothered his effort.
Austria were made to pay for that miss moments later but it was clear to see why many had declared them dark horses for Euro 2024. Some bookies even cut their outright odds following the 1-0 loss to Les Bleus.
Das Team’s failure to score on Monday was uncharacteristic for them. Not since September 2022 had they drawn blank until then. There is no room for error in that department against the Poles.
The drama of 2008
Poland and Austria faced one another in similar circumstances to this at Euro 2008. Having lost to Germany and Croatia respectively in their first games, both needed something from their matchday two encounter to keep hopes of progression alive.
Roger Guerreiro had given Poland a first-half lead but in stoppage time, Howard Webb adjudged Mariusz Lewandowski to have dragged down Sebastian Proedl and the English referee awarded the tournament co-hosts a penalty.
Ivica Vastić converted to make it 1-1 and keep Austrian hopes of advancing alive. Both sides would ultimately go out after picking up no further points.
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk remarked that he wanted to kill Webb following the controversial spot-kick decision.
"As the prime minister I have to be balanced and collected," said Tusk. "But [on Thursday night] I was speaking very differently about the whole thing, I wanted to kill. Referees make mistakes and this was an obvious error that harmed us all. I thought it would have been better if we had lost in the first half when Austria had their chances and not after 93 minutes due to an obvious mistake."
Tip:
BTTS & Over 2.5 goals
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Poland boast the better head-to-head record against Austria but it’s Ralf Ragnick’s team that enter this match-up as favourites. The Poles will hope that Lewandowski can fire them to a favourable result, but fellow striker Buksa also comes into this one in good nick.
Poland vs. Austria
1
Austria saw plenty of the ball in their defeat by France, enjoying 51% of the possession.
2
Poland’s matchday one goalscorer, Adam Buksa, arrived at Euro 2024 off the back of a 16-goal season for Antalyaspor.
3
Das Team have failed to beat Poland in each of their last five attempts in all competitions.
Our Betting Tip for Today
Defeat would likely spell the end for either country and a draw would leave them lots to do against strong opposition next week. On that basis, I expect full-throttle football from both, and the best bet is both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.
Euro 2024 has produced the most exciting first round of group fixtures in the competition’s history. Averaging 2.83 goals per game, two-thirds of the matches have seen the ball hit the net at least three times and all signs point to this game following that short-term trend.
Poland managed seven shots on target against the Netherlands - one of Europe’s top defences - and had plenty of efforts in their two warm-up games against Turkey and Ukraine (29 shots, 14 on target across the two friendlies).
Austria also came into the Euros in excellent goalscoring form but most importantly they, like Poland, need a win here and whoever falls behind is likely to chase the game.
The Poles play France in their final group match and will be huge underdogs, while Austria will be up against it versus the Dutch. Because of that, even if this game is 1-1 late on, both would be best served to go all out for the winner.
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