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Poland vs Netherlands Betting Tips: 16.06.2024 - Predictions & Match Preview

Euro 2024 Tips Betting Tips · 16/06/2024 - 2:00 pm · Volksparkstadion

Publish Date: 14/06/2024
Fact checked by: James Leeland

The Netherlands are not quite in the top tier of teams competing for Euro 2024 glory, with at least half a dozen sides more heavily fancied. Still, their fixture against a low-on-confidence Polish outfit represents a great opportunity to kick off their campaign with a positive result.

Recent form analysis

PolandPoles out of sorts

It is difficult to make a case for Poland having any sort of joy this summer. They scraped into the qualification play-offs after winning just three of eight, and their performance against Wales in the final of Path A was just as unconvincing as they couldn’t even muster a shot on target en route to a penalty shootout triumph.

To make matters worse, Robert Lewandowski sustained a thigh injury in Monday’s friendly against Turkey. If creating chances and scoring goals was difficult enough with a world-class striker in the lineup, it has now become an incredibly tall order without one against a stellar Dutch defence.

NetherlandsInjury-hit Dutch need a hero

Ronald Koeman, in charge of the Dutch national team for the second time, has had all sorts of injury woes in the build-up to Euro 2024 and he is probably wondering when he will receive some good news.

Key midfield pair Frenkie de Jong and Marten De Roon both miss out, and even one of their replacements, Teun Koopmeiners, was forced to withdraw from the squad with a groin problem.

Koeman is likely to shift between formations and it may take him a game or two to work out his best approach. Regardless of their system, the Oranje need someone to step up and fire them to the latter stages.

Gakpo aiming for Warsaw repeat

If the Dutch are to succeed in this competition, Cody Gakpo has to show up. The last time Poland met the Netherlands, he did just that, opening the scoring in a 2-0 Nations League victory in Warsaw in September 2022.

For that goal, the Oranje used the wide threat of Denzel Dumfries, as they love to do, and Gakpo appeared to have a typical forward’s instinct as he positioned himself perfectly for the square ball across to tap home.

The PSV academy graduate went on to net three at the World Cup, earning himself a move to Liverpool, but his form has since dipped for both club and country.

Gakpo might not feel like the star man at Anfield and that could explain his struggles, but at the European Championship he must surely sense that a lot of the nation’s hope rests on him. That may bring out his best.

Statistical highlights

The Netherlands’ biggest strength is their defence, with Virgil van Dijk at the heart of it. The Liverpool captain - who scored in both warm-up friendlies - won’t be too concerned about the threat posed by their first group opponents.

Poland vs. Netherlands
1
The Netherlands have kept a clean sheet in six of their last seven fixtures.
2
Poland have not beaten the Dutch since 1979, going winless in 12 meetings since.
3
When Germany last hosted the Euros in 1988, the Netherlands lifted the trophy despite losing their first group game to the Soviet Union.

Our Betting Tip for Today

The Netherlands have problems in midfield, but simply don’t look like conceding unless they are up against an elite team. Poland are certainly not that, so the best bet here is to back the Dutch to win to nil.

NetherlandsDutch to shut out Poland

Poland manager Michał Probierz will have been encouraged by the two recent friendly successes against Ukraine and Turkey, but he is wise enough to know that it won’t be so easy to break down the Netherlands.

Koeman has plenty of options in terms of both personnel and shape. He might use Dumfries as a traditional right-back and partner van Dijk with Stefan de Vrij, allowing Nathan Ake to operate at left-back.

The alternative is to bring in Tottenham Hotspur defender Micky van de Ven and play with wing-backs. Matthijs de Ligt is available as an extra centre-back and the versatile Lutsharel Geertruida can fill in on the right or in the middle.

Koeman has the luxury of being able to find the answers to any problems Poland might pose going forward, but it is at the other end of the pitch where more attention might be required as the Poles try to make life awkward.

Three of the Oranje’s last four games have finished 4-0 in their favour. Something like that would be the ideal start as they look to emulate the heroics of 1988.

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