Tip:
Under: 11.5first half shots
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Having dumped hosts Germany out of Euro 2024, Spain are now the favourites to lift the trophy. No French player has scored from open play at the tournament, but their defensive solidity has got them this far and could take them all the way.
Spain the entertainers
La Roja would be the people’s choice to win the Euros, leading the way in many of the tournament’s attacking stats and dazzling viewers with their dynamic play.
They were on the back foot for much of the quarter-final against Germany, but showed the know-how and resilience required to get through that battle with the hosts.
Spain come into the semi-final with some notable absentees, though. Pedri was forced off with a knee sprain last time out, while Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand are suspended for Tuesday’s game.
Dani Olmo proved to be a more than adequate deputy in midfield, but enforced changes in defence could unsettle what has been a terrific backline.
Les Bleus machine rolls on
Even in a tight game which Portugal edged on xG, there was an air of inevitability about France finding a way through the dull affair.
Les Bleus have been even less spectacular than fellow semi-finalists England at Euro 2024, but the pre-tournament co-favourites find themselves 90 minutes away from the final in Berlin.
Only four goals have been scored in matches involving the French thus far, but serial winner Didier Deschamps won’t mind one bit. They can turn the screw as and when they please, but operating in second gear has worked just fine for them up to now.
France have a fully fit squad, and even Spain will struggle to break them down.
European royalty
Spain and France are the two most decorated European teams of the 21st century, and it comes as no surprise that they are to be reacquainted in the latter stages of a major tournament.
La Roja lead the overall head-to-head by 16 wins to 13 (seven draws), and they were comfortable winners over the French when the pair last met at the Euros.
A Xabi Alonso double saw Spain cruise past France in the Euro 2012 quarter-finals, getting revenge for a 3-1 defeat by Les Bleus in the World Cup round of 16 six years prior.
The last time these sides locked horns was in the Nations League final three years ago. That night, Kylian Mbappe fired a late clincher to help France become the second winners of that competition.
Tip:
Under 11.5 first half shots
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Spain vs France has not typically been a goal-filled fixture in recent years, and the French will look to keep it that way in this fascinating clash of styles.
La Roja have spread the goals around the squad this summer. The same can not be said for Les Bleus.
Spain vs. France
1
France’s 2-1 win over Spain in the 2020-21 Nations League final was the first time since the 2006 World Cup that a match between the two nations saw over 2.5 goals.
2
Eight different Spaniards have scored at Euro 2024, while only Kylian Mbappe has netted for Les Bleus.
3
France have only conceded once at this tournament, and have the lowest xGA of the remaining teams.
Our Betting Tip for Today
France won’t want to get sucked into an end-to-end game from the first whistle, and even the free-flowing Spain will be happy to bide their time against this tough opponent. Our best bet is for there to be under 11.5 shots in the first half.
The French make no apologies for the fact that they have been far from the entertainers at Euro 2024. Only one of their fixtures has seen more than 11 first half shots, and that was on matchday three at which point qualification for the last 16 was already secured.
There were nine first half efforts in Les Bleus’ match against Belgium, and the quarter-final with Portugal was a real slog, with just five shots in the opening 45 minutes.
Two of Spain’s five first halves have gone over 11.5, so the overall hit rate for this bet is good enough for me to pull the trigger.
This bet would have landed in all four quarter-finals, and a close match-up such as this should see that trend continue.
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