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The two highest-scoring teams at Euro 2024 face off in Stuttgart on Friday evening, and the oddsmakers can hardly separate the nations with six European Championship titles between them.
Scintillating Spain
La Roja conceded their first goal of the Euros against Georgia on Sunday but that did not take the shine off another entertaining and emphatic display.
It was wave after wave of attacks from the Spaniards, who recorded 36 shots with 13 on target in Cologne. The highlight of the match was Nico Williams’ moment of individual brilliance to net his first goal of the competition.
Spain look like the best team in Europe at this stage. A lot can change between now and the final, but with a settled XI plus depth in all areas, they may well become tournament favourites if they can get past the hosts.
Fortune favours the Germans
Germany needed not one but two marginal decisions involving Joachim Andersen to go their way in the space of a crazy few minutes that determined the fate of the round of 16 clash with Denmark.
The penalty award for handball against the Crystal Palace defender was particularly contentious, but Julian Nagelsmann’s luck is still in, for now. There are doubts over how long this can go on for the manager who has some big selection headaches coming up.
Unlike Spain, the Germans have not improved as the tournament has gone on, and the 5-1 drubbing of Scotland feels like a long time ago.
Revenge or repeat?
At least one of Spain or Germany have reached the semi-finals at every Euros since the sides met in the final of Euro 2008, but this is the first encounter between them in this competition since La Roja’s 1-0 victory in Vienna.
The Spaniards got the better of Die Mannschaft by the same scoreline in the 2010 FIFA World Cup semi-finals, and it hasn’t got much better for the Germans in the head-to-head since.
Spain destroyed Germany 6-0 in a Nations League fixture in 2020, inflicting the heaviest competitive defeat on their opponents.
Their most recent meeting was at the 2022 World Cup in Group E. Niclas Füllkrug rescued a point for the Germans in Qatar that night, but Hansi Flick's men were ultimately eliminated on matchday three.
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Recent history favours the Spaniards and also points towards a low-scoring game. The pair have only conceded three goals between them at Euro 2024, but rank first and second respectively for goals scored as well as shots on target.
Spain vs. Germany
1
Germany have not beaten Spain at a major tournament since 1988.
2
Under 2.5 goals has landed in six of the last seven meetings between the two sides.
3
Spain have registered 29 shots on target to Germany’s 28 at Euro 2024. No other team has more than 22.
Our Betting Tip for Today
Germany have looked less convincing with each game since their opener, while Spain may have yet to peak. We are being offered just a touch under Evens for La Roja to qualify, and I’d be happy to take that bet against anybody left in the competition, host nation or not.
Spain set for semis
“Possession with a purpose” is how many have described Spain’s play at Euro 2024, and it has worked for them not only against teams they would expect to beat, such as Georgia and Albania, but also sides that were expected to offer a threat, like Italy and Croatia.
We know exactly how Spain are going to approach this quarter-final. There will surely be no surprises with the team selection, and while Germany will know what’s coming, they will still struggle to stop it.
Die Mannschaft have changed their approach and personnel throughout the tournament, with the latest tweak resulting in the benching of Florian Wirtz.
Leroy Sane’s introduction to the starting XI didn’t work out too well, and the switch to a more direct style paid off in the end against Denmark but they looked unconvincing and vulnerable at times throughout the game.
The Euro 2024 knockout phase has seen its fair share of tight games so I’m put off from backing the Spaniards inside 90 minutes. Still, they can break the hosts’ hearts on Friday evening even if it means needing extra time.
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