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Stoppage time goals in each of Switzerland and Italy’s matchday three fixtures had huge ramifications for their respective paths. The Swiss were moments away from winning Group A before Germany’s equaliser knocked them down a spot. The following night, the Azzurri were destined for third place in Group B until Mattia Zaccagni’s stunning 98th-minute strike against Croatia.
Take the Swiss seriously
Murat Yakin came into Euro 2024 under pressure after a far from convincing qualifying campaign, but something appears to have clicked this summer. Progression to the round of 16 was never in doubt, and Die Nati very nearly won Group A only to be denied by a late Niclas Füllkrug header.
Switzerland have shown they can be effective on both the front and back foot. Yakin’s side were good value for their 3-1 victory over Hungary two weeks ago as they controlled the game and created chances from the get-go. Die Nati seemed happy with a point against Scotland and they then gave the Germans a real run for their money in Frankfurt, taking a first-half lead and showing excellent organisation to keep the hosts out until the dying embers.
Unfancied Italy must improve
The defending champions made it through a difficult group and find themselves on what many consider to be the easier half of the draw. So, the fact that their outright odds for Euro 2024 remain at their pre-tournament figure of 16/1 tells you all you need to know about how the market views their chances.
Even Austria - who went off as big as 80/1 - are now a shorter price than the Italians to go all the way with some firms.
Positives can be drawn from Italy’s comeback win against Albania and the trademark never-say-die attitude that was on full display versus Croatia. Still, the way Spain toyed with the Azzurri in a match that was somehow only decided by the odd goal is the best indicator we have in terms of how Luciano Spalletti’s outfit fares against the top teams in the competition.
30 years of hurt
Switzerland have a terrible head-to-head record against Italy. They have met 60 times dating back to 1911 and Die Nati boast just seven successes.
The last Swiss triumph in this fixture came in 1993 as Marc Hottiger netted the winner in a qualifying match for the following year’s FIFA World Cup. Switzerland have not since beaten their neighbours in 11 attempts across three decades.
Italy’s 3-0 win over the Swiss in their second game of Euro 2020 showcased their credentials as a serious contender for the title which they went on to lift at Wembley. Switzerland had no answer for the Azzurri’s blistering attacking football and stubborn defence but did manage to qualify for the last 16 where they would upset France.
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Neither Switzerland nor Italy have kept a clean sheet at Euro 2024, and both teams to score has landed in five of the six matches involving either side.
The Swiss have found this opponent a hard one to beat in regular time, and recent history suggests this clash might go beyond the 90 minutes.
Switzerland vs. Italy
1
Two of Italy’s last three opening knockout games at the Euros have gone to extra time.
2
Switzerland have been eliminated on penalties at each of the last two European Championships.
3
Six of the last eight meetings between these sides have resulted in a draw.
Our Betting Tip for Today
Less than half of the knockout matches at the last Euros were settled in regulation time, and these two sides look like prime candidates to begin the Euro 2024 last 16 in a similar vein. The best bet for this fixture is to back the draw.
Switzerland were a 5/1 shot when these two nations met at Euro 2020, but it’s a different story this time around. They remain underdogs, albeit at a much shorter 12/5 to win inside 90 minutes or 6/5 to qualify.
That comes as a result of vast Swiss improvement but also an Italian demise. The Azzurri’s new-look defence does not carry the same authority as the back line that provided the backbone for their success three years ago.
There are problems in attack, too. Federico Chiesa looks like a shadow of the man that scored a couple of crucial goals in Italy’s journey through the Euro 2020 knockout stages - so much so that he was benched against Croatia on Monday.
Spalletti has tried Gianluca Scamacca and Mateo Retegui as his centre-forward, but neither have gotten off the mark.
Die Nati can go toe-to-toe with the Italians and they may just cancel each other out. Switzerland will set their stall out and won’t mind letting this one go to extra-time, while I don’t expect Italy to put the hammer down in pursuit of a regular-time winner.
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