US Open Weekend Preview: Odds, Stats and Tips for Decisive Matches

The US Open is nearing its conclusion, with just four players left standing in the men’s singles and the two highest-ranked players ready to compete in the women’s singles final.

Below, we take a look at all the relevant stats and odds going into the final weekend of the last Grand Slam of the year.

Men’s singles semi-final: Alex Zverev (1) vs Karen Khachanov

• Start time (UK): Friday 20:00
• Head-to-head record: Zverev 6-3 Khachanov
• Last meeting: 2025 Cincinnati Masters (R16) – Zverev won 7-5, 3-0 RET
• Odds (BetMGM): Zverev 1/5  Khachanov 10/3
• Value bet: Zverev to win in four sets – 12/5

Zverev is the clear favourite to win the tournament and add to the German’s first Grand Slam title win at the French Open earlier this year. He is aiming to reach his first US Open final since 2020.

However, Khachanov has already knocked out the number three seed Felix Auger-Aliassime on the way to the semi-finals; the Russian world number 50 is set to play in his third major semi-final and his first at Flushing Meadows since 2022, but he is yet to win a major semi-final.

Zverev should have too much for his opponent tonight, but Khachanov is in strong enough form that he could take a set off him.

Men’s singles semi-final: Frances Tiafoe (11) vs Ben Shelton (8)

• Start time (UK): Saturday 00:00
• Head-to-head record: Tiafoe 1-3 Shelton
• Last meeting: 2025 Washington (QF) – Shelton won 7-6, 6-4
• Odds (Unibet) Tiafoe 47/20  Shelton 33/100
• Value bet: Shelton to win in four sets – 49/20

 The 23-year run of no American man winning a singles Grand Slam could come to an end if the winner of this match takes the title. Tiafoe will be playing in his third US Open semi-final and he is aiming to make his first final.

Shelton, also a former semi-finalist from 2023, is the favourite after knocking out reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz in an epic four-hour quarter-final that ended after 330am local time.

Some weariness from both players after long quarter-finals could make this a close match, so Shelton to win in four doesn’t feel completely unrealistic.

Women’s singles final: Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs Elena Rybakina (2)

• Start time (UK): Saturday 21:00
• Head-to-head record: Sabalenka 10-7 Rybakina
• Last meeting: 2026 Miami Open (SF) – Sabalenka won 7-6, 6-4
• Odds (Bet365) Sabalenka 8/11  Rybakina 6/5
• Value bet: Match being won in three sets – 11/10

 Two of the standout players of recent years and the two top seeds will meet in a Grand Slam final for the third time; they have played in two Australian Open finals in 2023 and 2026, with Sabalenka winning the former and Rybakina claiming the latter.

Sabalenka is going for her third US Open title in a row and her fifth major overall. The Belarussian will be playing in her fourth consecutive US Open final and she has reached at least the semi-final stage six years in a row.

In contrast, Rybakina is playing in her first US Open final and had not reached the quarter-finals before this year. The Kazakh is a two-time major winner, and has knocked out the likes of Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff on the way to the final.

It’s incredibly hard to call this one, and a three-set match would not come as a shock.