VfL Wolfsburg, currently in sixth place in the Bundesliga, welcome eighth-placed SC Freiburg to the Volkswagen Arena on Saturday afternoon, with both clubs keen to collect more points in their battle to secure qualification for Europe. Neither side has been in consistent form since the Bundesliga resumed in May, and both will be desperate for a win. Read on to see how we think the game will turn out, and which markets you should betting on.
Oliver Glasner’s Wolves head into this match on the back of a useful 1-0 away win over Werder Bremen. Wout Weghorst netted the only goal of the game just eight minutes from time. The Dutch striker had endured a barren patch in front of goal in recent times, but that goal brought his tally for the season up to 12. That was the Wolves’ third win in five games since the resumption of the Bundesliga in May, a run that has put them in a strong position when it comes to claiming a European place for next season.
Christian Streich’s Freiburg side also go into this game after a 1-0 victory. In their case, the win came at home over Borussia Monchengladbach. Nils Peterson came on as a second-half substitute and nodded home the winner in the 59th minute. That was the first win since March 7 for Streich’s team, and an important three points in their push for a top-six finish. If they can win this game at the weekend then they are right back in the mix when it comes to the hunt for Europa League places. They are currently four points behind Saturday’s opponents in the Bundesliga table.
In the reverse of this fixture, back in December, it was Freiburg who ended up as winners. Their 1-0 victory came courtesy of Jonathan Schmid. The home side that day left it late, however, with Schmid’s goal not arriving until the 85th minute. If you think that they can repeat that scoreline, which is not unlikely in our view, then Mr Green is offering odds of 12/1 on that outcome, which looks pretty tempting to us. In the equivalent of this weekend’s clash last season, Freiburg came out on top, winning 3-1. They also scored three times in the reverse fixture which ended in a 3-3 draw. If you think that the game this weekend will produce plenty of goals, Mr Green has odds of 2/1 for there being over 2.5 goals in the game.
In the last 33 games between the teams, the record is pretty even. Wolfsburg have won 13 games and Freiburg have won 12, with there having been just eight draws. The Wolves have scored 50 goals in those 33 matches, with Freiburg having found the net 42 times. That record indicates that things could be very tight once again this weekend, especially with the added tension of the battle for a Europa League spot hanging over both teams.
Both keepers could be key
Koen Casteels, the Wolfsburg goalkeeper, could be a key player on Saturday in what is likely to be a close game. The Belgian has kept eight clean sheets in his 28 appearances in 2019/20. Paulo Otávio and William are both injured, meaning that the Wolves will have to make do without both of their regular fullbacks, as well as holding midfielder Ignacio Camacho.
For Freiburg, goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow has conceded 26 goals in 22 appearances in 2018/19, a pretty good record. Centre back Manuel Gulde will be missing after picking up an injury last weekend.
The five most recent results
VfL Wolfsburg vs. SC Freiburg
07 Dec 2019
Wolfsburg away, 1-0
09 Feb 2019
Wolfsburg away, 3-3
22 Sept 2018
Wolfsburg home, 1-3
07 April 2018
Wolfsburg away, 0-2
18 Nov 2017
Wolfsburg home, 3-1
We think that this game will be a very tight affair, and will end in a low scoring draw. We do think that both teams will score, as this fixture has produced plenty of goals in recent seasons. Mr Green has odds of 19/5 that both teams will score and the game will end in a draw. Those odds look mouth-watering to us, and we recommend that you think seriously about placing that bet. What a draw would do for both teams’ chances of claiming a European spot remains to be seen.