
The knockout stages of the 2026 World Cup continue on Monday with Germany, the Netherlands and Brazil all in action. However, can Paraguay, Morocco or Japan cause an upset or will it be plain sailing for the market favourites?
Our World Cup tipster Nathan Joyes returns with three bets hoping to bank more profit. Read his World Cup tips below.
Germany haven't looked as convincing as when they were fancied to be contenders before a ball was kicked - yet they shouldn't have too many difficulties against Paraguay's low-block.
The South Americans were stunned in round one as USA put five past them, and their head coach, Gustavo Alfaro, came out and admitted he didn't expect the US to be so fluid. Worrying. Yet they bounced back and defended much more resiliently against Turkiye to come out on top 1-0 - and had 10 men for 45 minutes.
Germany have had three very different matches to date. Their hammering of Curacao was impressive but expected, and their comeback against the Ivory Coast has to be admired. Defeat against Ecuador when already qualified can be looked at less harshly, but the lack of goals in the last two matches overall can help shape this bet.
Why? Paraguay will look to rely on their senior defenders - such as Gustavo Gomez - to keep the game tight. However, they lack pace and Germany can break them down - even if it takes a little bit of time.
Therefore, I'm sticking up Germany and under 3.5 goals at / with BetMGM.
The Netherlands are the favourites to beat Morocco but it's worth noting that they haven't won their last eight matches when they have been odds-against favourites. Despite winning their group, the Dutch conceded in every match - including two vs Japan when leading twice and also against Tunisia - arguably the worst nation at this World Cup.
Morocco were unfortunate to not top their group. They held Brazil before beating Scotland and Haiti, narrowly missing out on goal difference. But the 2022 semi-finalists may have been underrated in the market and the AFCON champions can certainly cause the Netherlands plenty of problems.
PSV's Ismael Saibari has scored in all three matches to date. Morocco's attack is so direct, pacey and full of life - and that could make life very difficult for their European opponents.
Both attacks have been in fine form this World Cup, but the Dutch don't necessarily deserve to be the clear favourites in this match which has created an enticing angle for us in Monterrey.
Both teams to score has landed in four of the last five matches for the Netherlands, while Morocco conceded not only to Brazil but Haiti - twice - and their defence isn't bulletproof.
Therefore, I'm happy to play BTTS Yes at 10/11 with BetMGM.
Brazil vs Japan is a fixture fitting for a quarter-final at a World Cup. However, after 10 previous head-to-heads, Japan will know their record of one victory will need to improve if they are to go further on the world's biggest stage.
That win did come in October 2025 in one of Carlo Ancelotti's first games in charge of Brazil (3-2) - but it's worth noting none of the defenders for the Selecao have made it to the US this summer.
Brazil have only been tested once in the group stage, when they drew 1-1 with Morocco. The Africans scored first and put them under plenty of pressure, and Japan's press could cause them similar issues.
Japan fought back bravely to draw with the Netherlands, stuck four past Tunisia, and signed off with another goal vs Sweden. Brazil's price is short, and their midfield looks vulnerable. However, stopping Vinicius Junior looks to be an impossible task at the moment and he could be the difference once more.
With that in mind, the goals market is the one that appeals the most.
Both defences can be breached and so I'm backing BTTS Yes at 1/1 with BetMGM.
Germany vs Paraguay: Germany and under 3.5 goals
Netherlands vs Morocco: BTTS Yes 1/1
Brazil vs Japan: BTTS Yes at 1/1

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