2026 World Cup Group D Betting Guide

Australia and Turkey kickstart Group D in Vancouver while USA will look to make the most of home advantage in California against Paraguay. Both Australia and Turkey will travel to the US for their remaining fixtures in Seattle and Santa Clara, California.

The US are warm favourites to qualify in pole position, while once again Turkey are the dark horses in a major tournament to closely follow. But both Australia and Paraguay have the capabilities to cause an upset - in particular the South American nation.

Let’s dive into Group D which is perhaps one of the trickier set of matches to call. World Cup betting analyst Nathan Joyes provides his thoughts on the four nations, starting with the hosts.

Group D Team analysis

USA

Expectations within the USA's camp will no doubt be high on home soil. Whether they deliver is another question. The US finished 2025 with wins over Australia, Paraguay and a 5-1 win over Uruguay - yet 2026 humbled the World Cup hopefuls. Belgium battered them 5-2 before Portugal’s controlled performance brushed them aside 2-0.

There’s work to do if they are to go far at the World Cup in their own back yard - and this group isn’t going to be easy.

There’s little doubt that Christian Pulisic will have to be at his best if his nation is to outperform their odds. The 27-year-old has been in good form for AC Milan this season - but he can’t do it alone.

Good job, then, that Monaco’s Folarin Balogun has been scoring plenty for Monaco this season, as has PSV’s Ricardo Pepi. Up front, the USA can be dangerous, but defensively is where they are likely to be caught out long term.

Paraguay

Paraguay wouldn’t be at the World Cup if it wasn’t for Gustavo Alfaro. The 63-year-old came in after a poor Copa America campaign and reignited the squad. At home, Paraguay beat Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Uruguay - conceding just twice. Alfaro fixed Paraguay defensively yet made sure they had enough conviction to get points in the bag.

Outside of their own environment, they have struggled, which is a concern ahead of the World Cup but they’ve done an excellent job to get here for the first time in 16 years.

There’s quality within this squad, too. Brighton’s Diego Gomez is without question their main asset alongside Strasbourg’s Julio Enciso, while Ramon Sosa and Miguel Almiron offer plenty of width when called upon.

Centre-backs Gustavo Gomez and Omar Alderete can be a physical pairing but nations who move the ball quickly could catch them out.

Friendlies since qualifying have produced mixed results but any losses have been by narrow margins. If Paraguay can click in front of goal, they are going to be a handful in Group D.

Turkey

It’s safe to say Turkey had a fairly easy route to the World Cup and this group will be a real test for them. Finishing 2nd behind Spain, neither Georgia nor Bulgaria tested Turkey before they beat Romania and Kosovo in the play-offs without conceding. They do, however, have the talent within the squad that can win matches.

Real Madrid’s Arda Guler shone at the Euros two years ago and has been a regular for his club this season. Kenan Yildiz is only 20 but has over 16 goal contributions for Juventus, while Galatasaray’s Yunus Akgun is an assist king since his move from Leicester in 2024.

Turkey have often been a nation that has performed well under expectations in recent tournaments but there’s no doubting the quality they possess within their squad. They’ve avoided drawing a huge nation within Group D and they will certainly be keen to profit from that.

Australia

Australia won’t be fancied to qualify against three stronger nations. They beat Saudi Arabia during their Asia qualifiers to 2nd spot to qualify for consecutive World Cups but didn’t face too many difficulties against the likes of Bahrain, China and Indonesia. This is a completely different ball game in the summer.

And that’s already been evident in friendlies that have followed. Defeats against the USA (2-1), Venezuela (1-0) and Colombia (3-0) strengthen that argument that the Socceroos lack the cutting edge to beat European or South American opposition.

There’s a real lack of European based players within Australia’s squad - and those that do aren’t at top tier clubs or playing at the highest level. They will no doubt have moments, but nothing more, and Australia could bow out of the World Cup earlier than they’d like.

World Cup Group D Betting Tips

Group winner: USA at 11/8 with Betfred

Home advantage will be key and with less travelling than the others, USA may do enough to finish top of the pile. Their main threat should come from Turkey, who have a squad stacked with quality, but so often fails to perform when expectations are high.

Expectations will certainly be high within the US camp but with sell-out crowds behind their nation and conditions they are used to, Mauricio Pochettino’s tactical edge and man management should be enough to see them get over the line.

Attacking wise, USA can outscore anyone in their group and that’s enough to suggest they can edge out both Paraguay and Turkey - but it will be close. You can get currently get odds of 11/8 on USA when you bet on the World Cup Group D winner.

Qualifiers: Paraguay

Paraguay, on their day, can be a really tough team to break down. And as mentioned, they have plenty of talent in the final third that can hurt nations at this World Cup. A win and a draw would guarantee them a place in the knockout stage and Gustavo Alfaro has transformed his squad into a team full of believers.

A nation doesn’t beat Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay without showing signs of improvement - it’s now up to Paraguay to show that they can perform just as well outside of their homeland.

They will need to step up once again on the biggest stage of all, but there’s no one in this group that will comfortably brush them to one side, and that’s what makes them a solid bet to advance to the next round.

Longshot team to watch: Turkey

Will this World Cup be the time that Turkey finally shows what they are capable of? It’s difficult to know exactly what they are going to achieve, but there are three nations in this group capable of putting a good run together - and Turkey are one of those. Currently valued at 15/8 to top Group D, backing Turkey to win the group could be a smart way of redeeming a World Cup free bet.

There aren’t many nations that can hold Spain these days - and that’s what they did during their WCQs. However, in the reverse tie, they lost 6-0 - lessons have been learnt but there are definitely two sides to Turkey’s game. Hopefully they can showcase their best version at the World Cup and if they do, they might be a great cash out option if the draw is kind.

World Cup Group D Standings

2026 World Cup Group D Fixtures