2026 World Cup Group F Betting Guide

Sweden and Tunisia open Group F in Monterrey on 15th June while across the border the Netherlands will take on dark horses Japan. Sweden will lock horns with the Netherlands in Texas in round two as Tunisia stay put in Mexico to face Japan. The African nation will head to Kansas City in round three while Sweden will do most of the travelling from Monterrey to Houston and then finishing the group campaign in Arlington.

Group F looks intriguing. All four nations will fancy their chances and this is one of the groups that will certainly divide opinion when it comes to the winner. Let’s see what World Cup tips expert Nathan Joyes has to say with his predictions.

Group F Team analysis

Netherlands

The Euro 2024 semi-finalists are expected to win Group F. Under Ronald Koeman, the Dutch only dropped one point en route to securing their World Cup spot, scoring 27 goals in just eight matches.

Corinthians’ Memphis Depay became their all-time top goalscorer during the qualifiers, contributing with eight goals and four assists along the way. Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo added eight goal contributions, while on-loan Roma forward Donyell Malen scored four of his own.

In March, the Netherlands beat Norway 2-1 and drew 1-1 against Ecuador with 10 men - both extremely promising results vs strong opponents.

From front to back, the Dutch have a squad filled with quality. Matthijs de Ligt and Virgil van Dijk offer leadership in defence. Frenkie de Jong, Tijjani Reijnders and Jeremie Frimpong compliment each other in the middle and then the likes of Depay, Brian Brobbey and Gakpo can score goals.

The Netherlands have been consistent for quite some time now and there are a lot of players within the squad that head to the World Cup at their peak. Expectations will be high - and so they should.

Japan

Japan will be a popular punt to not only do well within Group F but have a deep run in this competition. Friendly wins over England and an albeit rotated Brazil side after dominating their Asian World Cup qualifiers have seen their odds cut from 80/1 into 50/1 - but for good reason.

Hajime Moriyasu has been in charge since 2018 and although the 57-year-old has often divided opinion, he has managed to get his team out of the group stage in the last two editions of the World Cup. Now, however, it’s time to take his talented squad a step further.

With a largely European-based squad, Japan have a lot of depth that doesn’t necessarily weaken their team. Not many outside nations in the market can say that. Kaoru Mitoma remains their star asset but forward Ayase Ueda will head to the World Cup in fine form having scored 25 league goals in 29 matches.

Disciplined, confident in and out of possession and attackers that can hurt nations when stretched, Japan will certainly add another dimension to this World Cup and Moriyasu’s side need to be taken very seriously.

Sweden

Sweden are fortunate to be here. However, appointing Graham Potter turned out to be a rather smart decision as their dramatic wins over an underperforming Ukraine and Poland were enough to seal their spot this summer.

But it’s impossible to ignore their performances during their World Cup qualifying group that saw them finish bottom with two points from six matches. Without a clean sheet since June 2025 in a friendly against Hungary, Potter will know there’s still plenty of work to do.

This isn’t the strongest Swedish side in recent years, but there’s enough in attack that will give their fans hope. Newcastle’s Anthony Elanga, Arsenal’s Viktor Gyokeres and Liverpool’s Alexander Isak are their main options of scoring - all solid options on their day.

Yet it’s those in behind that have question marks over them. If Kosovo and Slovenia can beat Sweden, the Netherlands and Japan will be licking their lips looking at the Scandinavian's weak looking defence that hasn’t shown many signs that it has progressed in recent months.

Whether Sweden will cope with the conditions is another question, and their tough draw hasn’t done them any favours either. They look like a nation to avoid this summer.

Tunisia

Tunisia will represent Africa in Group F who will play in their third World Cup in a row for the first time in their history. After cruelly being knocked out of the AFCON on penalties against Mali, Tunisia have beaten Haiti and drawn with Canada in recent friendlies, keeping a clean sheet in both.

The Eagles of Carthage have shown plenty of resilience over the last 12 months, who impressed with a 1-1 draw with Brazil back in November when facing off in Paris. Often choosing to field five at the back, Tunisia will no doubt implement similar tactics in a challenging group in order to pick up as many points as possible.

It will be a tall order for Tunisia to qualify, but they know how to stay compact and frustrate opponents - with just enough in attack to keep other nations on their toes. One win could see them through to the knockouts - and they’ll certainly fancy their chances against Sweden.

World Cup Group F Betting Tips

Group winner: Netherlands at 8/11 with Betfred

Japan will be a popular pick at 10/3 to win Group F but the Netherlands may be slightly overlooked despite being 8/11 favourites at World Cup online bookmakers. In fact, I’d have them a touch shorter to come out on top.

The Netherlands clash with Japan in round one - and that match will really set the scene for this group - but a win against the Asian outfit could see them eye up qualification early - especially with Sweden in round two.

The European nation will have watched Japan’s performance and win against England and learnt plenty from that. But the Dutch also have multiple options when it comes to their attack, and there’s enough to exploit everyone in this group and build up a goal difference that could also prove key.

Qualifiers: Tunisia

With three potential spots up for grabs, Tunisia could be the surprise package in Group F priced at 21/20 - the only odds-against nation out of the four. Potter may have turned a corner with Sweden but their defence cannot be trusted to keep a clean sheet and this may well be the match where Tunisia make their move.

Tunisia have only lost one match since 2024 by more than a two goal margin and the fact goal difference could be a deciding factor for a place in the knockout stage might just play into their hands.

Longshot team to watch: Japan

Although the Netherlands may finish top of Group F, Japan, similar to Ecuador, are an extremely difficult team to break down. Their recent wins over England and Brazil can’t be dismissed lightly, and they have one of the more settled squads heading to the World Cup this summer.

A well balanced, disciplined side could thrive in the warm conditions where others falter, and not many nations will fancy lining up against Moriyasu’s men who look to be overpriced to go far. If you're looking to redeem some free bets on the World Cup, backing Japan to qualify would be a good way to use one of your bonuses.

World Cup Group F Standings

2026 World Cup Group F Fixtures