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40/1 World Cup Final Acca: Spain v Argentina

Publish Date: 18/07/2026
Fact checked by: Jordan Noble

World Cup Accumulator Tips

The biggest World Cup in history reaches its conclusion on Sunday night. After more than 100 matches, only two teams remain, each bidding to become the inaugural champions of the expanded 48-team format.

Throughout the tournament, Ben Smith has been providing our 2026 World Cup betting tips with a daily BetMGM acca, focusing on player and team statistics, disciplinary markets, shots and other alternative betting angles.

With only the final remaining, we're replacing the usual accumulator with a four-leg bet builder for Sunday night's showpiece.

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Spain v Argentina

Spain and Argentina were both underdogs in their respective semi-finals, but each fully justified their place in the final.

For all the talk of France's attacking firepower, Les Bleus were restricted to just 0.41 xG as Spain dictated the game from the first whistle to the last.

Rodri delivered another midfield masterclass, Marc Cucurella and Pedro Porro completely nullified France's threat out wide, and Dani Olmo produced arguably his best display of the tournament.

Lamine Yamal did not have his best game, but he did not need to. La Roja look like a complete team, while France often resembled a group of individuals hoping their stars up front would produce something special.

Argentina have been the comeback kings at this World Cup. They offered very little against England until the Three Lions went in front, but as Thomas Tuchel’s side dropped deeper to protect their lead, Lionel Messi had other ideas and took over the game.

Enzo Fernandez brought the reigning champions level from distance with five minutes remaining, before Messi teed up substitute Lautaro Martinez to break English hearts and prompt an inquest into Tuchel’s tactics.

Red Card Given (3/1)

There are no statistics that fully capture Argentina’s knack for the dark arts, but it has been there for all to see throughout this tournament. They have also been clever enough to understand where the line is and how far they can push things without jeopardising their chance to defend the trophy.

The final is different, though. There are no suspension concerns and it is simply a case of winning at all costs. Spain should prove willing dance partners, with several players of their own who are capable of being cynical when required.

There have been 14 red cards at this World Cup, remarkably 13 of them straight reds. This has all the ingredients of a fiery contest in which one or two players could get themselves into serious trouble.

Spain Most Shots on Target (7/10)

Spain have faced dangerous opposition from the round of 16 onwards, yet have seemingly had everything under control in all three matches.

The same cannot be said for Argentina, who were second best for large spells against Switzerland and again offered very little against England until falling behind. If they concede first against Spain, finding a way back will be a far tougher task.

Spain comfortably won the shot counts against both Portugal and Belgium. They did not manage that against France, but an early lead naturally changed the flow of the game, and La Roja would still have won the shots-on-target battle were it not for a late rally from Les Bleus that never looked like producing a comeback.

Mikel Oyarzabal to Score (8/5)

Mikel Oyarzabal had been earmarked as a potential weak link up front for Spain, though he has been anything but, particularly in the latter stages of this tournament.

He has scored five goals in North America from 3.63 shots per 90. His xG works out at an expected goal every other game, and we've also got the Golden Sub offer on our side should he be withdrawn, as he was during the second half in each of Spain's last two matches.

The Real Sociedad striker is also on penalty duty, so I was surprised to see him priced at 8/5 to add to his goal tally. Argentina have been far from watertight defensively at this World Cup, and Oyarzabal is the most likely man to take advantage.

Lionel Messi to Score (17/10)

To close out this bet builder, we’ll go with the greatest player of all time to, in all likelihood, secure the Golden Boot.

Messi has registered at least one goal contribution in every match at this World Cup. He failed to score against Switzerland but still posed a clear threat with four shots, while England became the first side to truly keep him quiet in front of goal. Even then, he had the last laugh by setting up Argentina’s winner.

Back Messi to sign off his World Cup career in style.

Bet Builder Odds 40/1

Expect a fiery final in which Spain's control translates into more shots on target, but with both Mikel Oyarzabal and Lionel Messi making their mark in front of goal.

Throw in a red card and the four-leg bet builder pays 40/1 with BetMGM.

World Cup Betting Bonus

BetMGM is not only one of the best World Cup betting sites, but they also have several World Cup betting offers and free bets, including a welcome bonus which allows new users to claim £40 in free bets after signing up and placing a £10 wager. Some of those free bets can be used on this summer's big tournament. Check out the BetMGM bonus.

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