
Thursday saw Spain properly announce themselves as genuine World Cup contenders, brushing Austria aside 3-0 with a dominant display. La Roja finished with 23 shots, 10 on target and created more than enough chances to justify the scoreline.
Austria, by contrast, managed just five attempts all evening. Tipped by many as dark horses before Euro 2024, Ralf Rangnick's side were comprehensively outclassed by the winners of that tournament.
That victory saw Spain shorten to 6/1 in the outright market, opening up daylight over England at 9/1. Argentina remain second favourites at 4/1, however, with France still leading the betting at 37/20.
Lionel Messi and co begin their knockout campaign on Friday against Cape Verde and are overwhelming favourites to progress. They've also landed in a favourable section of the draw, with Australia or Egypt - who also meet on Friday - awaiting in the last 16.
The Socceroos finished second in Group D, ahead of Paraguay, who also advanced, and Turkey, who Australia beat 2-0 in their opening match thanks to a resolute defensive display.
Egypt are unbeaten at this World Cup, having beaten New Zealand and drawn with both Belgium and Iran.
Colombia and Ghana round off the round of 32 before the last-16 ties get underway immediately on Saturday.
Throughout the World Cup, football tipster Ben Smith has been producing our World Cup 2026 betting tips with a daily BetMGM acca, focusing on player props, shots, cards and other performance-based markets rather than traditional match odds, with the aim of uncovering value in the less obvious betting angles.
Egypt have several forwards capable of drawing fouls. Omar Marmoush leads the line and averages 1.76 fouls won per 90 for the Pharaohs, having already drawn seven at this World Cup.
Mohamed Salah has also been winning plenty of free-kicks in central areas. He was never especially known for that at Liverpool, but in a number 10 role for Egypt, he is brought down far more often. Over a large sample, he averages 1.55 fouls won per 90 and has drawn six here.
Emam Ashour adds another threat, whether used centrally or out wide, with 2.31 fouls won per 90 and an impressive start to the tournament behind him.
That could mean a busy day for Australia’s centre-backs. Alessandro Circati has committed a foul in all three games, while Harry Souttar has four offences to his name. They are a big price to commit two apiece, as they did against the USA.
Nobody has found a way to contain Lionel Messi at this World Cup, not even Jordan, who only had to face him for the final half-hour.
The 39-year-old still came off the bench to score, adding to his brace against Austria and hat-trick versus Algeria. That leaves him with six goals from just 200 minutes of football.
Messi continues to find space regardless of the opposition's plan. Simply crowding him out is rarely effective when Argentina have so much quality around him, while their technical ability means they consistently find ways to feed him even when passing lanes appear blocked.
The chances will come. Cape Verde did an admirable job of frustrating Spain in the group stage, but repeating that level against Argentina, and Messi in particular, looks an even tougher assignment. At the prices, backing him to score two or more goals appeals.
Colombia draw more than 13 fouls per game, while Ghana commit over 14, making player fouls one of the standout betting angles in this matchup.
The two Ghana players who most regularly give away free-kicks are Marvin Senaya and Kwasi Sibo.
Senaya averages two fouls per 90 and looks to have the perfect assignment here, with Luis Diaz likely to operate on Colombia's left. The Bayern Munich winger is their most-fouled player, drawing 2.41 fouls per 90.
Sibo is another who catches the eye. He committed three and four fouls in his two World Cup starts, and with Jhon Arias and Gustavo Puerta combining to draw almost four fouls per game, there should be plenty of opportunities for the Ghana midfielder to be penalised again.
Friday's acca is built around some angles that look well supported by the match-ups. Egypt's attack should keep Australia's centre-backs busy, Lionel Messi has every chance of adding to his remarkable goalscoring tally against a lesser side, and Colombia's ability to draw fouls makes another physical outing likely for Ghana.
These selections make a nice 33/1 acca with BetMGM.
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