
The stakes, and in many cases the entertainment, ratcheted up in the round of 32. That was a new addition with the expanded 48-team format, but now we're back to familiar territory. The last 16 has always felt like the point where the World Cup really begins to take shape.
Canada played all three group matches on home soil but surrendered that advantage by losing to Switzerland in their final group game. That sent them to Inglewood, California for their round-of-32 clash with South Africa, while Switzerland travelled to Vancouver to face Algeria and will remain there for Tuesday's last-16 tie.
Morocco are Canada’s opponents in Houston, with Mohamed Ouahbi's side favourites after collecting seven points in Group C before upsetting the Netherlands in one of the heavyweight ties of the round. Morocco trailed but forced extra time through Issa Diop's stoppage-time equaliser before winning 3-2 on penalties.
The winners will face either France or Paraguay, and it's difficult to see past Les Bleus. The two-time world champions have hit top gear, scoring 13 goals already and not necessarily against minnows, with Senegal, Norway and Sweden all conceding three against Didier Deschamps' side. Kylian Mbappe has six of those goals, Ousmane Dembele has four, and France have quality wherever you look in attack.
Neutrals may feel a little short-changed that the projected France-Germany tie never materialised, but Paraguay certainly won't care. Since their opening 4-1 defeat to the USA, they've conceded just one goal in three matches and will look to make life as awkward as possible for the tournament favourites.
Throughout the World Cup, football tipster Ben Smith has been producing our World Cup 2026 betting tips with a daily BetMGM acca, focusing on player props, shots, cards and other performance-based markets rather than traditional match odds.
Canada and Morocco matches have generally been good for fouls at this World Cup, with Canada's games averaging 26.75 offences and Morocco's 27.5. While the total line of 26.5 is tempting, I prefer targeting individual players.
Richie Laryea has been at the centre of plenty of Canada's free-kicks, both won and conceded. He has been involved in seven fouls in each of his last two matches and averages 5.19 foul involvements per 90.
Most of those come from drawing fouls, but he still commits just shy of two per 90 and faces an ideal opponent here in Brahim Diaz. The Morocco playmaker draws 2.84 fouls per 90 thanks to his close control and willingness to run at defenders.
Diaz also puts in plenty of defensive work himself, while Laryea is excellent at using his body to win cheap free-kicks. It has all the ingredients to become a fascinating individual battle, with both players capable of contributing multiple fouls.
France looked vulnerable, and perhaps a little short of fitness, during the opening 45 minutes against Senegal, but they've been nothing short of outstanding since.
Iraq were never likely to trouble them, while Norway rotated their entire side in the group stage, making that result difficult to judge. It would have been interesting to see Les Bleus against Norway at full strength as a better gauge of where they stood.
Sweden, however, arrived in the knockout stage with genuine attacking quality and barely laid a glove on Deschamps' side. France won 3-0 and could easily have scored more.
Once opponents fall behind, they have little choice but to push forward, and that's exactly the situation Mbappe thrives in. The space left in behind is where he's at his most dangerous. In each of the three matches in which he's scored, he's gone on to add a second, and with the Golden Boot race finely poised, there's every incentive for him to keep chasing goals.
Olise has been key to that. He's assisted Mbappe in each of those three matches and has four assists in total at the tournament. With the greatest of respect to Paraguay, this isn't a major step up in opposition, so 13/2 about Olise to assist and Mbappe to score twice - something that's already landed three times in four World Cup fixtures - looks too big a price to ignore.
The two ties point towards very different betting angles. Canada and Morocco look set to produce another physical contest, while France's attacking firepower makes it difficult to look beyond Mbappe and Olise combining once again if Les Bleus continue their fine form.
This makes a 47/1 shot with BetMGM.
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