
Sunday is one of the biggest days of the World Cup so far, with record five-time champions Brazil facing a tough test in the shape of Norway.
England, another of the pre-tournament favourites, also have a difficult assignment as they take on co-hosts Mexico at the Azteca Stadium, more than 7,200 feet above sea level.
It could easily have been Japan facing Norway instead of Carlo Ancelotti's side, but Casemiro's second-half equaliser and Gabriel Martinelli's stoppage-time winner spared Brazil from one of the shocks of the tournament.
Brazil have not been entirely convincing in North America. Morocco dominated the opening 45 minutes of their group-stage meeting, while the 3-0 win over Haiti was efficient rather than spectacular, with Brazil managing just eight shots. Scotland also had encouraging moments before individual errors proved costly, and Japan caused them problems.
Norway may not be the most complete side left in the competition, but Erling Haaland is one of the world's best finishers, while Martin Odegaard is capable of supplying him. The only match they failed to win came when they rotated heavily against France. Otherwise, they've played positive football and largely justified their dark-horse status.
Mexico, meanwhile, have won all four matches without conceding. They were helped by a favourable group, with Czechia and South Korea falling well below previous standards and South Africa playing some of their meeting with nine men. Their 2-0 victory over Ecuador in the round of 32 was similarly comfortable, with the result effectively settled inside the opening half-hour.
England know this represents a significant step up. Performances have fluctuated, from the impressive 4-2 win over Croatia to a flat goalless draw with Ghana, while victories over Panama and DR Congo were harder work than many expected.
The Three Lions are still in the last 16 and could certainly have been handed a tougher opponent, but coping with the altitude may prove just as important as dealing with Mexico themselves.
Throughout the World Cup, football tipster Ben Smith has been producing our World Cup 2026 betting tips with a daily BetMGM acca, focusing on player props, shots, cards and other performance-based markets rather than traditional match odds.
Brazil can be got at here. Morocco showed that in East Rutherford and Norway have enough quality to enjoy spells of pressure themselves.
Norway have registered 20 shots on target across their four matches, averaging five per game, which is exactly what Scotland managed against Brazil. A repeat of that could be enough to win the shots-on-target battle, making the price worth taking.
I also like Erling Haaland to score. Brazil have only kept clean sheets against the weaker attacking sides they've faced, Haiti and Scotland. Excluding those matches, they've gone seven games without shutting out the opposition.
Norway won't change their approach against bigger nations. They have repeatedly shown they can supply Haaland against elite opposition, with the striker scoring three goals across two World Cup qualifying meetings with Italy. Having already netted five times in three appearances at this tournament, he's more than capable of adding to that tally here.
England face a difficult assignment in Mexico City on Sunday, with the altitude expected to play a significant role.
I do wonder whether that factor has been slightly overplayed in some of these markets, though. England's shots on target and corners both appeal at the prices.
Czechia, despite a poor World Cup, still managed five corners at the Azteca, while Ecuador - far more accustomed to playing at altitude - forced eight when chasing the game against Mexico.
There are plenty of scenarios where England end up on the front foot. They have looked vulnerable defensively and could easily fall behind, as they did against DR Congo. The pace of their attacks may be reduced by the conditions, but Thomas Tuchel has enough quality on the bench to inject fresh legs, and England should still create sustained periods of pressure.
They've averaged 6.75 shots on target per game at this World Cup, making over 5.5 look worth chancing at the odds.
Both matches offer some decent opportunities here. Brazil deserve respect, but Norway have shown throughout this tournament that they can routinely trouble defences and create enough chances for Erling Haaland. Meanwhile, although the altitude in Mexico City is undoubtedly a factor, England can still generate attacking pressure through corners and shots on target.
All together, it makes a 24/1 acca with BetMGM.
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