
Monday serves up two standout last-16 ties at the World Cup, with the Iberian Derby between Spain and Portugal kicking things off at AT&T Stadium before co-hosts USA face Belgium in Seattle.
Spain and Portugal have met 41 times, dating back to 1921. Spain won that first encounter and have largely had the upper hand since, recording 17 victories to Portugal's six, with 18 draws.
They've also shared some memorable meetings at major tournaments. Portugal knocked Spain out of Euro 2004 thanks to Nuno Gomes' winner in Lisbon, only for Spain to return the favour six years later when David Villa's goal sent La Roja into the World Cup quarter-finals on their way to lifting the trophy.
Portugal then suffered more knockout heartbreak at Euro 2012, losing to Spain on penalties before Vicente del Bosque's side retained their European crown. Neutrals, though, will be hoping for something closer to their unforgettable 3-3 draw at the 2018 World Cup, when Cristiano Ronaldo's hat-trick stole the show.
USA and Belgium have far less history, having met only twice in competitive fixtures. The Americans won 3-0 at the inaugural World Cup in 1930, but Belgium have taken every meeting since, including a 2-1 victory in the round of 16 in Brazil 12 years ago.
Mauricio Pochettino's side will believe they can end that run. Belgium reached this stage by the narrowest of margins, coming from 2-0 down late on against Senegal before completing a remarkable comeback in extra time.
Throughout this tournament, football tipster Ben Smith has been producing our World Cup 2026 betting tips with a daily BetMGM acca, focusing on player props, team cards, corners, and other stat-based selections rather than the match odds, total goals and other major markets. He’s got picks from both of Monday’s ties, and they make a nice 59/1 acca.
Portugal are into the last 16, but they have not made especially light work of getting here. Croatia pushed them all the way in the previous round and, while Roberto Martinez’s side found a late winner, they’ll need to up their level against Spain, who arrive after their most complete performance of the tournament.
The European champions controlled everything from start to finish in their 3-0 win over Austria. Luis de la Fuente’s side look settled, sharp and extremely difficult to break down.
Spain have been exceptionally difficult to create chances against at this World Cup. They've conceded just 5, 5, 3 and 6 shots across their four matches.
The three and six came against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde, but the two fives are perhaps more impressive. Uruguay needed a victory to reach the knockout stage yet were restricted to just five attempts, while Austria, who spent most of their round-of-32 tie chasing the game, could only manage the same total.
Since and including that 3-3 draw at the 2018 World Cup, Portugal have failed to reach double figures for shots in any of their six meetings with Spain.
The personnel may have changed, but the pattern has remained much the same whenever these rivals meet. Chances are often at a premium, and with a place in the World Cup quarter-finals on the line, another tight, cagey contest would come as little surprise.
After a wasteful tournament opener against Cape Verde, Mikel Oyarzabal has settled into the World Cup nicely. He scored twice against Saudi Arabia in the group stage and carried that form into the knockouts with another double against Austria.
With Lamine Yamal and Alex Baena supplying quality from wide areas, and Spain's full-backs also adding service into the box, Oyarzabal should get chances to strike again here.
The USA have been handed a major boost ahead of their meeting with Belgium after Folarin Balogun was cleared to play.
He looked set to miss out after being sent off in the victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina, but FIFA has suspended the automatic one-match ban, leaving Pochettino free to name him in the starting XI.
The Monaco striker has got three goals from 11 shots in just three World Cup appearances, and we've already seen how vulnerable Belgium can be defensively. Backing Balogun to find the net again makes plenty of appeal.
To boost the price, I also like a Malik Tillman assist. The Bayer Leverkusen midfielder averages 2.12 key passes per 90 for the USA, takes a share of set-pieces and has the vision to unlock this Belgium defence.
Accumulator Odds 59/1
Spain look well equipped to edge a typically tight Iberian derby, while the USA's Balogun and Tillman can make the difference against Belgium.
These picks make a 59/1 acca with BetMGM.
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