
Day 10 of the 2026 World Cup keeps the second round of group games moving, and we’re set to have another look at two of the big European hopefuls, Germany and the Netherlands.
Throughout the tournament, Ben Smith will provide our World Cup betting tips and previews in the form of a daily acca using BetMGM odds, focusing on player and team statistics, disciplinary markets, shots and other alternative angles rather than traditional match betting.
Saturday’s schedule is a tasty one. Germany were among the most convincing teams of the opening round, Sweden made an eye-catching start of their own, and Japan arrive with confidence after frustrating the Netherlands. Elsewhere, Curacao showed enough in defeat to suggest they are more than making up the numbers.
The action starts with Netherlands against Sweden before Germany meet Ivory Coast. Ecuador then face Curacao at 1am UK time before Tunisia and Japan close the card in the early hours.
I think there is value in taking a few pro-Sweden positions in this fixture, particularly in the most shots on target market where 5/2 feels big.
Across their last 30 matches, Sweden have averaged more shots on target per 90 than the Netherlands. The opposition level has not always been identical given Sweden’s lower Nations League status, but it still suggests this side has more attacking threat than the prices imply.
A big reason is the front line. Graham Potter has managed to get Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres functioning together, and that pairing gives Sweden genuine firepower capable of troubling anyone.
There is support behind them, too. Yasin Ayari is happy to shoot from range and showed that with two excellent strikes against Tunisia.
The Netherlands looked a little laboured and short of ideas at times against Japan, and I’m happy to oppose them here.
Kai Havertz’s opening display perhaps did not attract the same attention as the braces scored by Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland or the hat-trick by Lionel Messi, but two goals is two goals and he looks every bit as credible a Golden Boot contender.
A big part of that is the quality around him. Germany create chances from all angles. Florian Wirtz produced four opportunities against Curacao, while Joshua Kimmich bettered that with five, two of which ended in goals.
Add Jamal Musiala into the mix and Havertz should continue seeing regular service in dangerous areas. He also has penalty duties in his favour, which only strengthens the case for backing him to score again.
Having both lost their opening matches, there is not much room for caution here and both Ecuador and Curacao should be prepared to take more risks.
The over 27.5 total shots line initially appealed because an early goal could open the game up quickly, but I’d rather ask less of the bet and simply back Curacao to reach seven efforts.
They have cleared this line in each of their last 10 matches, including the heavy defeat to Germany and games against Scotland and Australia earlier this year.
Ecuador are a well-organised defensive side, but 6.5 shots is not an especially demanding line if this becomes stretched.
Livano Comenencia looked lively against Germany and got on the scoresheet, while Juninho and Leandro Bacuna can also contribute enough attacking output to help Curacao get there.
Tunisia have already reacted to their heavy defeat against Sweden by making a change in the dugout, replacing Sabri Lamouchi with Herve Renard.
That appointment could matter immediately because Renard’s teams tend to look very different stylistically. The Frenchman has previous World Cup experience with both Morocco and Saudi Arabia, and his sides are typically aggressive, physical and prepared to press high.
That creates an interesting angle here because much of the pricing is still built on Tunisia’s longer-term numbers rather than what we might expect under a new coach.
Saudi Arabia’s foul counts under Renard at the 2022 World Cup were 21, 15 and 20, while they picked up card totals of 6, 2 and 6. Tournament football under him has generally been intense and combative.
Japan profile very differently. They average fewer than one card per game and came through the Netherlands match without a booking, making this contrast in styles worth attacking.
Happy with the angles chosen in Saturday’s acca. Sweden look overpriced to compete with the Netherlands in attacking output, Germany should continue feeding Havertz chances, Curacao may need to open the game up and Tunisia’s managerial change could show up quickly in the cards market.
Combined, the four selections pay at attractive odds of 28/1 with BetMGM.
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