
Day 14 of the 2026 World Cup marks a bit of a shift in the tournament because, for the first time, groups begin reaching their conclusion.
Throughout the tournament, Ben Smith has been providing our World Cup betting tips and previews with daily accas using BetMGM odds, focusing on player and team statistics, disciplinary markets, shots and other alternative angles rather than traditional match betting.
Groups A, B and C all reach their final round of fixtures on Wednesday. Teams now know what they need, whether that is protecting a position, chasing goals or throwing caution aside entirely. The only caveat is that only eight out of the 12 third-placed teams will advance, so some teams won’t know whether they are through or not once their games are completed.
There are still plenty of big names involved too. Brazil will want a more attractive display, Canada have put themselves in a good position, while Mexico already know they are through and could approach things differently.
The action starts at 8pm UK time with Switzerland v Canada and Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar, before Scotland face Brazil and Morocco meet Haiti at 11pm. South Africa against South Korea and Czechia versus Mexico round off the night at 2am.
With a draw and a defeat from their opening two games, this is effectively a straight shootout between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Qatar for a place in the round of 32.
A draw does neither side much good and Bosnia & Herzegovina undoubtedly have the stronger squad. If Sergej Barbarez’s side do get themselves in front, I do not see much incentive for them to keep peppering the Qatar goal.
At that point, the focus is likely to shift towards controlling the game and managing the clock rather than chasing a bigger triumph.
That makes their shots line look a touch high. Bosnia average fewer than 11 efforts per game under Barbarez and even went under 15.5 in qualifying wins over Cyprus and Malta.
It all comes down to this for Scotland. They start the final group game with three points and a level goal difference, meaning a draw should almost certainly be enough and even a narrow defeat may leave Steve Clarke’s side with a chance.
Brazil will still want a performance of their own after an unconvincing start to the tournament. They were second best for spells against Morocco and weren’t much better even in victory against Haiti.
That should mean strong line-ups and proper intensity.
Lewis Ferguson stands out in the fouls market. He averages 2.72 per 90 for Scotland and is likely to spend plenty of time dealing with a Brazilian midfield full of players comfortable drawing contact. Bruno Guimaraes is a good example if he starts, averaging 2.44 fouls won per 90.
With so much at stake, Scotland’s most frequent offender appeals to be penalised three times or more.
Mexico are already through to the knockout stage, although the route there has not been pretty. They were booed off at half-time against South Korea before finding a winner through Luis Romo.
Czechia’s position is much more precarious. One point from two games leaves them needing a result and, based on what we have seen so far, it is difficult to know where that performance comes from. They were second best against South Africa, Patrik Schick has looked short of his usual level and Pavel Sulc lost his place after the opener.
This could all get very desperate, so rather than force a pro-Czechia attacking angle, I prefer the cards market. Motivation is heavily in their favour and if the game starts slipping away, 4/5 on Czechia to collect the most bookings appeals.
South Africa looked completely disorganised against Mexico and were deservedly beaten, but even with two suspensions to deal with, they were far better against Czechia and could easily have taken all three points.
Bafana Bafana transitioned quickly, as we know they can, and created good opportunities against Czechia. That should leave some optimism heading into this fixture, especially after South Korea disappointed in defeat to Mexico.
With both sides needing a result, there are plenty of scenarios where this game becomes stretched. If that happens, it could suit South Africa and their price to record the most shots on target may start to look generous.
This acca leans into game state as much as raw data. Bosnia may not need to force things if they get ahead, Scotland should bring plenty of intensity with qualification on the line and Czechia’s urgency could show itself in the disciplinary markets. South Africa complete the line-up as a side that may be better than their points tally suggests.
Combined, the four selections return 35/1 with BetMGM.
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