
The quarter-final line-up is set at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and, while there have been a couple of surprises along the way, the top three pre-tournament favourites and the reigning champions all remain on course to contest next week's semi-finals.
France began the tournament at slightly bigger odds than Spain, but Les Bleus are now clear favourites after reaching this stage with little difficulty. They scored 10 goals in the group stage, eased past Sweden 3-0 in the round of 32, and, although Paraguay provided a sterner examination in the last 16, Didier Deschamps' side were rarely under serious pressure.
They now face Morocco, semi-finalists four years ago and a team with enough quality to make life uncomfortable for anyone on their day.
Spain may have lost favouritism in the outright market, but they are yet to concede a goal in North America and are strongly fancied to get past Belgium. Rudi Garcia's side looked to be heading out against Senegal before producing an astonishing late comeback, then followed it up by comfortably seeing off co-hosts USA.
England showed tremendous resilience after going down to 10 men against Mexico at the Azteca, holding on at more than 7,000 feet above sea level. The question now is how much that effort has taken out of them ahead of a meeting with Norway in the Miami heat.
The Scandinavians were widely tipped as dark horses before the tournament, but Erling Haaland has somehow exceeded even his lofty expectations. The Manchester City striker has already scored seven goals, including the brace that knocked Brazil out.
Argentina's route to the quarter-finals looked straightforward on paper, with Cape Verde and Egypt standing between them and the last eight, but it proved anything but. Cape Verde pushed them to extra time, while Egypt led 2-0 with just 12 minutes remaining before the reigning champions produced another dramatic comeback.
Throughout the World Cup, tipster Ben Smith has been producing our World Cup 2026 betting tips with a BetMGM accumulator each day. The focus is on player props, team cards, corners, and other stat-based selections rather than the match odds. Below is a bet for each of the quarter-final ties.
Morocco have drawn 17.4 fouls per game at this World Cup and, while France kept their foul count low during the group stage, that number has risen in the knockout rounds, committing 14 against Sweden and 11 against Paraguay.
Most of Morocco's joy has come down the flanks. In four of their five matches, they've faced a back four, and in each of those games, both the opposition left-back and left winger have committed at least one foul.
That points towards Lucas Digne and Bradley Barcola. Digne has conceded a foul in all three of his starts, while Barcola committed two and was booked against Paraguay. Up against Brahim Diaz and Achraf Hakimi, Morocco's two most fouled players, both should have plenty of opportunities to be penalised.
I also like Kylian Mbappe to get involved. He's committed five fouls in five matches, and Morocco have consistently drawn fouls from opposition centre-forwards. Canada's Tani Oluwaseyi and Jonathan David combined for five, Brian Brobbey committed two for the Netherlands, while Haiti's Lenny Joseph was penalised four times.
Spain have been exceptionally difficult to create chances against at this World Cup, with Portugal becoming the first side to reach double figures for shots against them in the last 16.
Belgium still possess plenty of attacking quality, though, and Leandro Trossard is never shy about pulling the trigger. He's averaging 3.4 shots per 90 at the tournament and looks overpriced to register three efforts here.
Given Belgium's defensive vulnerabilities, there's every chance they find themselves chasing the game at some stage. If that happens, Trossard should be one of the players leading the response.
England's two clean sheets at this World Cup came against an unambitious Ghana side and Panama, who were unfortunate not to breach the Three Lions themselves.
Croatia scored twice, DR Congo broke through and could easily have had more, while Mexico also obliged twice in the last 16.
A clean sheet looks a tall order against a Norway side growing in confidence, so I’m happy to keep this simple and back Haaland to add to his seven-goal tally.
As with the Haaland pick, sometimes it's best not to overthink it. Lionel Messi has scored in every Argentina match at the 2026 World Cup and, while Switzerland are well organised, this is still a game in which he'll expect to get chances.
He's averaging 6.37 shots per 90 minutes, with opportunities continuing to come from both open play and set-pieces. Switzerland will do well to contain him for 90 minutes, and I'd back Messi to find the net once again.
Four quarter-finals, four bets. Morocco can continue to draw fouls at an impressive rate, Trossard is one of the main candidates to help Belgium try to spring a surprise, and superstars Haaland and Messi can keep their Golden Boot bids going.
These selections make a 37/1 acca with BetMGM.
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